Offseason Notebook: Rendon to Indy, more free agents, prediction reviews

On a massive USL League One leap for Brendo Rendon, key free agents, and more

Welcome back to the Offseason Notebook! Before we dig in, make sure you’re checking out Backheeled, where I reflected on the longer-term impact of 2024’s major USL headlines.

Without further ado, let’s get to it.

Bruno Rendon and Indy’s improvement

If they ran the USL playoffs in July, Indy Eleven may well have been your 2024 champions. Sean McAuley’s side peaked about halfway through the year, looking like a full-blown title contender and making a run to the US Open Cup semifinals on the back of their hot summer form.

Still, Indy has been a “nothing gold can stay” team dating back to their NASL days, and the terrific performances wrought by McAuley’s 3-5-2 didn’t persist into the fall. The Eleven cooled down and were eventually ousted in the first round of the playoffs. The club stayed aggressive in the market, however, and eventually settled into a fascinating 4-4-2 that ended 2024 on a relatively high note.

With much of that November core back, Indy is now filling the gaps to try and make a competitive leap. In signing Bruno Rendon, they’ve done more than just plug a hole: Indy Eleven have added one of the most dynamic attacking players in the entire USL ecosystem.

Indy’s production at the full back spots ran hot and cold all year, but the right side was particularly frigid. The Eleven used four players on the right over the course of the year, beginning with Younes Boudadi and progressing through Ben Mines, Logan Neidlinger, and Hayden White as the season continued. Between opening day and June 1st, Indy’s full backs picked up 10 assists; they’d get just one more all year long.

Assists are a fickle mistress, but they capture a legitimate lack of production on the wing in this case. Bruno Rendon solves that problem and then some.

Rendon isn’t really a provider in the classical sense. Yes, ranked in the 60th percentile of League One for expected assists and outdid any Indy right back in terms of chances creation. Primarily, though, it’s the Cuban international’s ability to leak over the top or underlap his way into the box that’s a game-changer.

You get a taste of all things Rendon here. In the first case, he’s underlapping and running ahead of winger Real Gill - himself a speedy dribbler in the mode of Maalique Foster - to receive in the box. Once there, Rendon drives a low cross toward the penalty spot to beat three defenders and tee up a golden chance.

Yes, there’s a cross at the end of the first play, but the movement is what stands out. That run is what you’d expect from an out-and-out-forward, and it’s the reason Eamon Zayed - Rendon’s manager in Northern Colorado - used him as both a left and right winger during the year. That same idea reigns true in the final two plays in the reel.

The second clip sees Rendon recover possession on the edge of the box and whip in a gorgeous cross to create a chance; the third features a give-and-go with Gill that draws a dangerous set piece. Everything that Rendon does advances the ball and puts his team that much closer to scoring.

Here, Rendon’s defense shines. The 24-year-old is hyper-athletic, and that quality shines just as much in subtle moments that require quick hip turns and tight footwork as on the counter. In this case, it allows Rendon to stand up Derek Gebhard - someone Indy fans of a certain vintage will remember as an NASL foe - and keep the Northern Colorado box free of danger.

Rendon was beaten on the dribble a modest 0.6 times per game last year, which isn’t earth-shattering but is more than solid in the context of his attack-first profile. He also put in 1.7 tackles per 90 minutes on a 75% win rate, which is a sterling mark. I’m not here to tell you that Bruno Rendon is a great defender, but he’s far from a liability - and you aren’t signing him to sit back, frankly.

Between the additions of Rendon and forward Edward Kizza, a 12-goal scorer in 2024, Indy has been one of the most aggressive movers this winter. Kizza himself is an interesting add, someone that hews closer to the physical mold of Romario Williams than the more complete (but released) Augustine Williams. While certainly capable of strong movement, the ex-Riverhound seems to portend a continuation of direct offense focused on hold-up strikers.

My modeling thinks that Indy has one of the strongest back halves in the USL. The question now is whether McAuley settles into a 3-5-2 or persists with that end-of-year 4-4-2.

Either way, you like the early returns for this Indy side. Assuming this team stays healthy, there’s a lot to admire in the Circle City, and Bruno Rendon is the exact sort of addition that can make the Eleven a legit contender.

Free Agent Spotlight, Part II

A few weeks back, I previewed a batch of free agents to hit the market in the wake of first-wave roster decisions. Since then, we’ve seen a flurry of further announcements, so I wanted to highlight a few more under-the-radar players. For the full scope of roster updates, see my tracking page.

We’ll start with one of my favorite defenders in the USL: ex-Birmingham Legion center back Alex Crognale. Now entering his eighth USL season, Crognale didn’t miss a beat in 2024 and was - for my taste - a really surprising cut on the Legion’s part.

Crognale’s best asset is his aggression. This is a player that isn’t afraid to track a runner on the drop, go in for the tackle, and push his side onto the break. The center back has underrated foot speed and is good about denying angles, but he’s also a terrific initiating passer out of the back.

For me, few defenders in the USL are willing to just try some stuff with the ball. Crognale is one of the select group with that confidence, and it’ll pay off in spades for his new club - especially if said team is more positive and aggressive than a very ponderous 2024 Legion unit.

Mikey Lopez also deserves a shout from the Legion in the wake of a season derailed by injury. Comfortable at left back or as a defensive midfielder, Lopez is a real leader on top of that versatility. In his last full season in 2023, he ranked in the 90th percentile for passes completed, the 83rd for defensive actions, and the 94th for tackle win rate. That’s efficiency personified.

Now 31 years old and coming off that absence, Lopez is probably going to be a surer option as a No. 6. He doesn’t have the height at 5’8” to cover at center back on a full-time basis, though a combo “left back-center mid” role in a more progressive formational system would be a terrific deployment. No matter what, though, Lopez brings the character that you want in your changing room.

A former Legion player that moved to Rhode Island FC for their expansion campaign, Gabriel Alves is another enticing option with flexibility across the back half. Though he only played 126 minutes from July onward, Alves appeared in 30 matches for Birmingham in his rookie season and comes with college pedigree via Marshall that shouldn’t be forgotten.

You get a taste for Alves as the left-sided center back in a 3-5-2 in this example. With Rhode Island trailing late, the defender is allowed to push up toward the edge of the area and really get expressive. As soon as an opponent takes a heavy touch, Alves pounces to win the ball. Rather than innocuously passing out, the Brazilian turns, dribbles endline, and whips in a dangerous cross.

Alves’ blend of physicality and technique makes him a very capable left back or center mid, on top of that hybrid defensive deployment that he’s seen occupying in the clip. Some players with that versatility slot into the “jack of all trades, master of none” bucket, but not Alves. He’s got the tools to be a real contributor in the right system.

Conor McGlynn was a player I thought would tear things up in Rhode Island alongside Alves, but injuries and the rise of other midfielders left him at sea. That shouldn’t deter a potential suitor ahead of 2025.

In his final Hartford season, McGlynn split time between the central midfield and center back spots. Often, he’d do both at once as a given match transitioned between phases of play. The numbers paint the picture of a hyper-efficient player, and that’s an accurate understanding of McGlynn’s game. He’s a very tidy player, but that belies a game-breaking guile underneath the hood that a smart club could leverage in 2025. A native Northeasterner, he’d be an unreal first signing for Westchester in League One - though McGlynn is more than capable as a Championship starter.

Though I hit on FC Tulsa almost a month ago, I hesitated to discuss Owen Damm ahead of his return to Louisville City on loan. Now that he’s been released, it’s high time one of the unsung breakout players of 2024 gets his due.

Now, you may be saying: “but John, Owen Damm signed with Tulsa again on Friday! He isn’t a free agent!”

That is correct, but I already pulled the clip, and I’m gonna write about him anyway.

Damm came up with Louisville but didn’t get much time at Lynn Family Stadium, and a prior loan spell with Northern Colorado was good but not really great. By contrast, Damm looked the part of a legit starter in Tulsa, admirably plugging holes until he became nigh undroppable for Mario Sanchez and Luke Spencer - themselves familiar with Damm because of their shared history in Kentucky.

You get a sense for the defender’s complete game above. In the first case, it’s the positioning that stands out; Damm never overcommits, knows when to change marks, and helps slow down play to enable a stop.

It’s the opposite dynamic in the second case, where Damm knows exactly when to step on the gas and lead a break for his Tulsa side. Between 1.1 successful dribbles and 2.8 completed long balls per game last year, the young full back always had a keen eye for progressive, break-facilitating contributions. Those talents will be a key building block for Tulsa in 2025.

Prediction model revisited

Way back in my season preview from February, I rolled out my data model’s predicted standings for the 2024 season. With the year in the rearview mirror, how did I do?

As a refresher, each club was assigned an expected points value based on the strength of their roster. From there, error bars were created on those predictions based on minutes retained. The more of your 2023 contributions you kept around, the narrower the range assigned by the model.

In total, my numbers pegged seven out of eight Eastern playoff teams correctly and five out of eight in the West. The average error of a prediction was eight points; Sacramento was the biggest underperformer, coming in 19.9 points under expectation, while my model came within 0.7 points of Monterey’s total and 1.2 points of Hartford’s.

Considering the error bars, two-thirds of the predicted ranges ended up being accurate. Ironically, Louisville and New Mexico - the top seeds in their respective conferences - were the biggest underestimated sides, and both finished well above their error-included sums. There’s a reason Eric Quill and Danny Cruz were in the Coach of the Year hunt and why Cruz took home the title.

The did very well to portend a high-parity environment. Miami was expected to be terrible, and that bore out. Birmingham’s decline was another solid result. On the flip side, entirely new rosters in Rhode Island and (effectively) Las Vegas were pegged to a tee - their expected finishes in 5th and 4th place, respectively, both came to pass.

Was it perfect? Of course not. That said, I’m more than happy with the result.

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• That Damus signing for Birmingham is a major, major statement. Go check out what my friend and fellow USL Show co-host Kaylor Hodges had to say about it in his video analysis of the striker’s game.

• Nicholas Murray put together a very good breakdown of the 10 biggest signings of last week. It’s required reading after a wildly hectic stretch of cuts, extensions, and transfers.

• Maxi Rodriguez is not overrated, thank you very much.

• The good thing about being a Jude Law fan is that you never stop winning. Between the new Star Wars show Skeleton Crew, where his mere presence is a spine-tingling heat check at the end of the second episode, or the new, almost “knockoff Heat” movie The Order where he’s investigating white supremacists, the man’s still got it.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover Photo Credit: Northern Colorado Hailstorm / Twitter