Offseason Notebook: Remi, Red Wolves, Riverhounds
Offseason Notebook: Remi, Red Wolves, Riverhounds
Discussing Phoenix Rising's new striker, the offseason overhaul in Chattanooga, and deft additions to the Pittsburgh defense
Remi Cabral, hot off a season in which he won MLS NEXT Pro’s Golden Boot with Colorado Rapids 2, is a familiar name for USL sickos and a wholly different player than in his LA Galaxy II days. The 24-year-old, a PSG youth product entering his fifth pro season, has big shoes to fill in the form Danny Trejo and Manuel Arteaga. Even so, he’s grown into a forward who can make a massive difference in the Valley.
The native Frenchman put up a 19-goal season last year, a testament to Colorado’s trust in his No. 9 skillset. In 2022, I called Cabral “one of the best progressors in the USL with the ball at his feet,” and the tape bears the claim out. That Cabral possessed those creative skills as a baseline and also grew tremendously as a finisher in the meantime should be music to the ears of Phoenix fans.
During his last campaign in Southern California in 2022,!Cabral picked up five goals on a high volume of touches as a hybrid winger-forward. Those skills matured in the Rockies, where, per American Soccer Analysis, the Frenchman was a top-25 MLS NEXT Pro player per their Goals Added metric and one of the league’s most additive forwards in terms of receiving the ball in dangerous areas.
You can see that special magnetism for the ball here, with Cabral’s facilitation on show. The first play is exemplary: Rising’s new No. 9 notices that the opposing midfield is misaligned and slices into the half space to take advantage. An ensuing give-and-go takes Cabral into the open seam, with his pass wisely timed to take out a defender and eventually tee up a near-assist.
The 24-year-old finds gaps in the left channel in the next two plays, turning quickly on the ball to push his side onto the break. One move sees Cabral launch a pass over the top, haphazardly but with a clear intention to go for the jugular. The next is more controlled, with Cabral threading in a winger who found a seam in behind.
Finally, the Rapids loanee to Phoenix is seen as a midfielder again, roving underneath the high press to prevent a chain of line-breaking passes. He closes well onto an opponent, winning the ball back for his side and drawing a foul in the process.
We’ll see why Cabral can be the goalscorer Rising needs, but the skills on show here are equally important. Think about what the Frenchman has to replace and who he’ll now complement. Danny Trejo was brilliant at picking up the ball low and carrying it forth on the break. New adds like Juan Azocar and Edgardo Rito constantly make wide bursts over the top that Cabral has the ability to hit as a risk-taking passer.
Still, a striker must (1) make smart runs and (2) put the ball in the net, and Cabral does both things. His defensive buy-in sparks the first chance above, denying the opponent the ability to recycle possession and forcing them into a central trap. With Los Angeles in possession, Cabral tears between the center backs to get in on net - that’s the running, paired with a nascent pressing instinct.
More defense at the No. 9 spot is next up, shown by way of a blocked pass. It’s a small example, but it’s important for Phoenix. Rising are a high-press, high-line club, and Cabral’s energy - if a bit raw at times - is an important plank in supporting such a system.
You get a sense of the danger in front of net in the last three plays. There’s a run between a Sacramento wing back and center back to start the fun, well-timed to put the centerman off balance and force an own goal.
Two bursts into the right channel follow from a different match; one sees Cabral turn on a dime for a nasty tight-angle finish, while the other culminates in a decent cutback to keep the Galaxy in the danger zone. Both are instructive for what Colorado saw in the attacker.
These kinds of plays have become more common during Cabral’s time in MLS NEXT Pro, but he was building off a respectable base. Across the 2021 and 2022 seasons with Galaxy II, Cabral scored eight goals on 8.9 expected goals, converting at a clip of around 11%. In 2023, he generated 19 goals on 75 shots in Colorado, good for a 25% conversion rate.
When Milan Iloski won the USL’s Golden Boot in 2022, he did so attempting 3.7 shots per 90 minutes. Cabral, meanwhile, beat him by an entire shot, putting up 4.8 tries per game with the Rapids. That’s not wastefulness; that’s an exceptional ability to find opportunities, and it marked an effective doubling of his shooting volume from the Los Angeles days.
Let’s hit the Colorado tape. Cabral doesn’t even get a touch in the first example, but watch his movement. The key run takes him left to right, crossing against the momentum of the central defenders. The Frenchman occupies two men with this smart move, and the Rapids get a goal for it.
Cabral maintained his panache in transition in the Centennial State, too. You see him streak over the top to draw a penalty in the reel, eating a defender alive on his back shoulder. Another such example ensues later in the reel, with the new Phoenix man first-timing a superb right-footed finish into the bottom corner.
This is a key distinction to draw. Cabral used to be the man feeding those breaks. Now, he’s turning them into goals himself.
Hard-driven takes with a real sense of intention and placement are Cabral’s speciality as shooter. He’s not a chucker, and the clips on the edge of the box post-cutback and from the left side of the box after a perfectly-timed half-space run are masterful examples of choosing the right moment to fire.
In the Valley, Cabral figures to be the top choice at the No. 9 slot in an anticipated 3-4-3. Panos Armenakas will start on the right but do his typically brilliant thing, tucking low into a No. 10 sort of role to accommodate overlaps from the wing back spot. On the left of Cabral, Juan Azocar is the likeliest starter, though Fede Varela could ape Armenakas’ style, or Darek Formella could play a Danny Trejo-lite role as a marauding second striker.
No matter the specifics, the Remi Cabral loan is something to be excited about. This is a truly talented player with a sharply upward trajectory, and Phoenix Rising is an optimal platform for Cabral to test his mettle in a high-stakes, high-expectations role.
Chattanooga’s 2022 was a year to remember, defined by the verve of Rafa Mentzingen, Jimmie Villalobos, and Jose Carrera-Garcia in the midfield plus a 13-goal return from Juan Galindrez at striker 2023, then, was the hard follow-up that comes for successful teams in the lower leagues.
All four aforementioned stars were gone, drawn away by other opportunities. Things started slowly, and mid-year experiments didn’t result in a turnaround. By the end of the campaign, the Red Wolves finished last in League One with 58.2 expected goals against and a negative-18.7 expected goal difference; Central Valley Fuego was almost seven expected goals better off in the penultimate slot.
Late-on, Chattanooga leaned back into a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 that spotlighted players like Jonathan Filipe, who emerged as a free-ranging No. 10 in the middle. By and large, the Red Wolves struggled to engage their forward line amidst middling outcomes, but Scott Mackenzie’s side truly began to identify players who could contribute to a system in the new year.
Filipe, loaned in from Hartford, was resplendent in his time in Tennessee and evidences that fact. The former Red Bull product chipped in two goals and six assists in roughly 1,000 minutes of action; he ranked in the 96th percentile for expected assists, the 80th for expected goals, and the 92nd for forward passing rate to boot. Filipe helped spark players like Ropapa Mensah, who ended the campaign with six goals in his last seven games.
Led by those players, plus solid contributors like Chevone Marsh and Mayele Malango, the offense was better than advertised, and the Red Wolves have rightly chosen to run back their attack. The additions that so excite me and portend success, then, have come everywhere else on the pitch.
In net, Carlos Avilez has been replaced by TJ Bush. I’ve heard that Avilez is getting a shot in the Championship, but his numbers were somewhat mixed for each of the last two seasons. By contrast, Bush - a 95th percentile performer by goals saved above expected in 2022 - is a numerical darling. We’ll return to the defense, but upgrading in net is already a huge step for Chattanooga in curing last year’s ills.
The midfield has been a real area of focus, especially in terms of sheer depth. Ualefi will remain as the metronome and catch-all holding man in the middle of the park. New faces in Omar and Leopoldo Hernandez, who I’ve cautiously mapped as midfielders, will add balance too.
I anticipate a midfield threesome no matter what overall shape Mackenzie prefers, one that provides a sense of control and variety. A three-man middle was common across 2023, whether the Red Wolves were in a 4-2-3-1 variant or a back three.
If that’s indeed the case, new signing Lucas Coutinho could get run ahead of Ualefi and provide a potent partner for Filipe. The former Greenville and Tulsa man had five goals last year and was fiercely progressive as a passer. Not especially defensive-minded, he could also be a good bench option, used as a sparkplug more sparingly applied.
The biggest signing of them all must be Ricky Ruiz. A member of the Red Wolves in 2020 and 2021, Ruiz broke out during his time in Tennessee, collecting four goals and eight assists in 27 starts in his last season in League One. Ruiz kept up the quality in the Championship as an incredibly slick dribbler with a nasty left foot. I suspect he plays as an attacker back home, but he was a more-than-serviceable wing back for Rio Grande Valley and offers optionality.
What of the back line proper? I spotlight three new faces in the clip here, starting with Gustavo Fernandes in central defense. A champion in North Carolina last year, the 25-year-old defender combines heft and a controlled athleticism with a healthy but rarely-reckless risk appetite. Fernandes is very good about applying pressure to unsettle foes without compromising himself or his team’s shape.
Both he and Leo Folla, seen at the end of the clip, are right-footed but comfortable on the left side of a center back pairing. Folla is more of a stay-at-home type and is a high-volume winner of aerial duels, but he, too, has good instinct in pursuit of loose balls and passes over the top. Pair them with Declan Watters, an all-conference defender in college, and you’ve got a spine with ample League One qualifications.
No matter how the center group aligns, they’ll help feed Jamil Roberts on the wing. A left-footer good on either side or at either full back spot, Roberts was drafted by Sporting Kansas City and has more than 50 USL appearances at age 25. I slot him at left back, but refer to the two stunning goals in the video if you see him further up this season.
That’s a lot of players, but that’s also a lot of good players. Chemistry won’t be instant, but suffice to say that I love the moves here.
In sum, the Red Wolves are worth eyeing in 2024. The squad-building philosophy so far is clearly addressing this team’s biggest problems, and those machinations can push Chattanooga back into the postseason mix if Mackenzie plays his cards right.
Not to brag or anything, but I’m kind of the Michael Jordan of being wrong about the Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
Time and again, I decry their roster moves and foretell doom. There’s something about their ability to pluck rock-solid contributors out of the lower-visibility college ranks that evokes a “they can’t keep getting away with this!” feeling deep in my bones. Still, that’s the brilliance of Bob Lilley: he has a system, and he’s unbelievably good at scouting players to execute it.
While I was harsh on the ‘Hounds in my first Backheeled check-in of 2024 and my data model has them slightly under the Eastern cut line, I would bet my modest belongings that they’re safely in the playoff field come October. Some of their new additions - mapped in a putative lineup above - suggest the usual something-out-of-nothing recovery in the season to come.
Pierre Cayet and Sean Suber stand out. Both are young central defenders who put up good number last year, with Cayet representing New England Revolution II and Suber suiting up for Huntsville City FC. In my mind, they’ll join Patrick Hogan, a solid right-sided defender who rated in the top 25% of USL center backs for aerial wins, tackle win rate, and fouling efficiency in 2023, as part of the back line.
In action last year, Cayet won 68% of his duels, a whopping 5% better than any other MLS NEXT Pro defender who won 150 challenges or more. In layman’s terms, no defender in the entire league was as effective at fending off opponents at as high a volume as the Frenchman.
Want more? Per my good friend at USL League One Review, Cayet ranked in the 97th percentile for progressive passing amongst his defensive peers. American Soccer Analysis had him as the #3 most value-additive player in the division!
Suber started 26 games, pitching in 19 tackles and 18 interceptions with just five yellow cards. He led his side in completed passes by a margin close to 400 completions(!) and did so by going long on just 10% of his attempts. By contrast, Arturo Ordonez hoofed it on 25% of his tries last year. Might Pittsburgh be building a more patient, possessive unit for 2024?
Elsewhere, I like Eric Dick (91st percentile goals saved above expected in a hialriously tiny sample size in 2021) as the starting goalie, and the midfield trio of Danny Griffin as the No. 6, Robbie Mertz as a shuttling No. 8, and Kenardo Forbes doing everything while racking up gobs of assists is unassailable. The big need is for that threesome to stay healthy while Forbes beats away Father Time.
Sum it all up, and maybe - maybe! - this is the year I end up with a respectful take about Pittsburgh after all.
In other news…
Read The Rondo! Tons of good stuff again from Nicholas Murray this week, but the note that “2024 could mark the first season in league history in which no player who appeared in the Championship’s inaugural season in 2011 is active in the league” actually stunned me. He’s the best there is in the USL game.
I was back at it on The USL Show this week, where we hit on allegations at One Knox and all the big signings in the Championship and League One. Give the podcast a subscription; it helps us and does nothing bad for you.
As I continue my personal quest to see every Best Picture winner, I have to complain about 1920s and 1930s awardees. Half of these movies are a Trojan Horse for filmed Broadway musicals and vaudeville shows? The other half are war propaganda? And they’re all three hours long despite having no plot? It’s a big week for Oscar outrage in 2024, but be thankful you didn’t watch Cavalcade (1933) or The Broadway Melody (1929).
That’s all for the weekend! See you next time.