Offseason Notebook: Phoenix, League One, schedule highlights
On Rising's reloaded attack and more from across the USL
Welcome back to the Offseason Notebook! Before we dig in, make sure to check out Backheeled. This week, I broke down USYNT and Orange County winger Bryce Jamison’s game ahead of a possible European transfer.
Without further ado, let’s get to it.
Checking in with Rising
Phoenix Rising’s roster has remained surprisingly consistent as 2024 gives way to 2025, but make no mistake: this team ought to look different under Pa-Modou Kah.
If last season felt identity-less under Danny Stone and Diego Gomez, the aim under Kah is to re-forge a signature philosophy. Rising are somewhat unique in a USL context because of their top-down game model, one that derives from the front office. That’s not to say the manager is powerless, of course, but the coach in Phoenix is expected to execute a certain brand of soccer that’s measurable by key performance indicators regarding, say, pressure or possession.
Last season, Phoenix completed 83% of their passes with an average vertical distance of 5.6 yards; both marks ranked second in the USL. A near-neutral 0.08 xG difference per 90 minutes and 19th-ranked 3.0 final third regains per match, however, signify a team that couldn’t dominate in their preferred manner.
Kah is here to revive a more coherent Rising system. Most recently with Charlotte FC as an assistant, the former Norway international previously guided Pacific FC to a 2021 Canadian Premiership title. During his two years up north, Pacific held more than 56% of possession on average to lead the CPL twice over. Kah’s side also led the league in final third and middle third takeaways in 2020 and 2021.
That ability to teach possessive, territorially dominant soccer is why Kah was an appealing proposition in the Valley.
As it stands, Rising’s lineup is a fascinating puzzle. Gomez-ball, featuring a “tuck your left back into the central midfield and kinda go 3-1-5-1” formation is likely kaput. Given the state of the team, we can’t draw conclusions, but it’s useful to note that Kah typically ran a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Pacific and North Texas SC.
Emil Cuello’s role is an interesting proposition. I adored the way Gomez used the veteran as a full back, and his statistical returns (96th percentile recoveries, 95th percentile successful dribbles) were a bright spot down the stretch. The deployment felt innovative in a manner that Rising rarely did elsewhere.
That said, Cuello didn’t exactly light the stat sheet on fire. Post-coaching chance, he garnered just 1.9 expected goal contributions and picked up a lone assist. He’s also a No. 10 by nature, so his streamlined usage as a midfield hole-plugger is a likely outcome.
Without Laurence Wyke’s flexibility to cover right back and center back in tandem, Phoenix doesn’t have the same ability to bend and shift around Cuello anyway. Fornow, the defense feels short of a conservative-minded right back (or at least “complete” relative to Edgardo Rito) and one more starting-caliber central defender.
JP Scearce’s role is something to watch as a bridge between lines. Scearce can hold down a defensive spot in a back three if needed, but allowing him to operate in a box-to-box midfield role maximizes him to a greater degree. At this point, though, he’s a depth choice; Rising’s biggest need is a solid No. 6.
Still, it’s early. As Christmastime approaches, talent matters more than any stab at a final lineup. In that sense, Phoenix’s winter has been exciting. Additions like Damian Rivera and Hope Avayevu stand out as potential breakouts, providing distinct profiles despite the fact that they both played on the left wing last year.
Rivera feels likelier to be a day-one starter after a season on loan in Tampa Bay. With the Rowdies, the 22-year-old made 36 appearances in USL competition but started just five times between the wing back and left-forward spots. He still managed to put up six goals and three assists on 0.70 xGA per 90 minutes - a number that put him in a deadlock with Nick Markanich.
The underlying stats are elite, but what does Rivera provide in practice? Quick with the ball at his feet and able to shrug off pursuers, Rivera completed 35% of his crosses and beat defenders on the dribble 2.4 times per game last season. He’s excellent at finding separation and picking out windows to serve, a classic skillset for an out-and-out left winger.
At the same time, Tampa Bay also used Rivera as a hybrid No. 8 in their 3-5-2 on occasion. In that spot, Rivera could leverage the ingenuity on the turn and quick burst to receive between the lines and create chances.
Now, there are some caveats to note. Rivera’s numbers are inflated because of his status as a late-game sub in scenarios where Tampa Bay was allowed to possess. Playing behind or next to Cal Jennings and Manuel Arteaga provided Rivera with amounts of space and time he won’t enjoy in Phoenix. Despite the obvious technical skills, Rivera was dispossessed 2.9 times per game, the highest total of any USL attacking mid.
If Rivera can rein himself in across 90 minutes, he’s got the offensive upside to be a star on the wing. If not, he may find himself displaced in favor of fellow signee Hope Avaveyu.
A 22-year-old much like Rivera, Avaveyu first broke out in USL League One with North Texas SC before moving to Ventura County (née LA Galaxy II) in MLS Next Pro. Previously having played as a No. 10 at some points, Avaveyu mostly held down the left in limited minutes in 2024. In that time, Avaveyu was tremendous, ranking in the 97th percentile for expected assists on relatively modest touch totals.
There’s obviously shared DNA with Pa-Modou Kah given the duo’s overlapping tenure in Texas. You trust that Kah can get the most out of Avaveyu in 2025.
Few teams will be as interesting to track in the preseason as Phoenix. The permutations across an already-crowded attacking group are manifold. Players like Cuello, Scearce, and Ryan Flood offer versatility and optionality in spades. Youngsters like Giulio Doratiotto will be hoping to stake a claim to minutes amidst that muddle.
Was this a lot of rambling to shrug and say “I don’t know” about Phoenix Rising? Maybe! What I do know is that Rising have assembled a fascinating core already, and they feel a few pieces away from genuinely contending once again.
League One Quick Hits
Compared to the Championship, the League One hot stove has only reached a low simmer thus far. That said, the week before Christmas featured a few big deals that’ll make a major mark in 2025. I want to talk about three of the standouts.
Ropapa Mensah to Greenville
Let’s compare two resumes from the USL League One regular season, but let’s do it blind.
That final column, representing the mystery players’ share of their team’s total expected goals and assists (xGA), is noteworthy. These players were both top-three creative contributors in the league in 2024, putting their teams on their respective backs. Player A is certainly more prolific in a shooting sense, but Player B is remarkable for his efficiency on relatively limited touches.
If you haven’t guessed by now, Player A is now-former Greenville star Lyam MacKinnon. Player B is Ropapa Mensah, MacKinnon’s replacement as the leading offensive weapon in South Carolina, who was recently added from the Chattanooga Red Wolves.
The obvious difference between the two comes in terms of position: MacKinnon is a winger, while Mensah is a striker. Still, there’s proof of concept regarding Mensah’s ability to lead an attack. He has MLS experience and 23 goals across competitions during his two Chattanooga seasons.
Grenville will continue to add, of course. Between Mensah and Leo Castro, Greenville is set at striker, but they need more bodies out wide. Ben Zakowski (five assists in League One play as a rookie) ought to be a nailed-on starter, but more depth is a must even if someone like Pascal Corvino emerges as a more consistent option. Still, adding Ropapa Mensah is arguably the biggest move of the offseason to date and represents a statement of intent from the Triumph.
A quick note on Chattanooga: woof! Losing Mensah and Malaye Malango in short order is a gut punch. Fascinated to see how they recover in Tennessee.
Lalo Delgado to Naples
Nearly every League One fan would tell you that Lalo Delgado is an elite goalkeeper, but the advanced stats are middling regarding his game. Over the course of the last two regular season’s he’s sitting on a +2.5ish goals prevented mark, a number that balloons above +5.0 inclusive of cup and playoff action. In layman’s terms: an average keeper would’ve allowed five less goals than Delgado.
That’s the story on paper, at least in part. My modeling - much more naive than the American Soccer Analysis numbers cited above - rated Delgado as an elite shot-stopper in 2024, well above par.
Looking at pure goalkeeping metrics is also an oversimplification in and of itself. Delgado, for instance is an effective long passer. Koke Vegas he ain’t, but Delgado can do a job in build. The 26-year-old commands the box in a way that’s statistically invisible to boot.
Indeed, Delgado has the goods by the eye test. He’s fairly quick off his line, discerning when trying to claim the ball or punch away a serve, and effective as a communicator. The former Hailstorm man has the profile of a defensive cornerstone for a team like Naples that’s trying to build an identity.
Between Delgado and Jake Dengler, it’s already clear that Matt Poland’s expansion side won’t be easy to score on. USL League One is uniquely blessed with a deep stable of great goalies, and Naples have set themselves up for success by nabbing one of their own.
Jimmie Villalobos to Antelope Valley
AV Alta have quietly assembled a stellar midfield spine in short order. Miguel Ibarra was the first domino to fall, and adding veteran center mid Jimmie Villalobos as a complement is a statement of intent from Brian Kleiban’s expansion side. There are ample ways to build a League One contender, but stockpiling proven central talent might be the surest.
Villalobos often sat of the base of a 3-1-5-1ish attacking shape for Madison last season, and he rightfully was named to the all-league second team for his efforts. The thing with Villalobos is that the stat sheet doesn’t always pop. He ranked in the bottom half of League One mids in terms of tackles, interceptions, and blocks in 2024 and was unremarkable as a creator.
Viewing the 29-year-old through that lens, however, misses the point. Madison was +0.1 goals per 90 better with him on the pitch last season than without. More boutique metrics love Villalbos anyway, and that’s before you get to the off-ball brilliance.
In terms of his volume of touches and forward progressivity, Villalobos was Madison’s best central passer last season.
Sitting deep at the base of the midfield, he knew when to go forward and when to hold firm as a member of the back three bombed ahead on the ball. Rarely wasteful, Villalobos completed a sterling 88% of his pass attempts - many of which were incisive drives through a press - while also linking up on 2.9 long balls per game.
Moreover, that steady positional presence kept Madison whole in transition. If an offensive turnover occurred, Villalobos was always ready to step to a carrier and slow the ball down. His headiness can’t be understated - and it’ll be the perfect complement to Miguel Ibarra for Antelope Valley.
Mandatory March Matches
The USL released the full schedule for 2025 last week, and you can find a spreadsheet version of the Championship, League One, and Jagermeister Cup slates here. I tend to avoid calendar analysis like the plague because it’s so hard to know where a team will be at any point in the year. I do want to indulge in a preview of big early games.
The premise is simple: which matches in the month of March will say the most about the competitive state of the league? Without further ado, here are five to keep an eye on.
1. Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United (March 8)
The season kicks off with a match between the West’s presumptive favorite heading into 2024, Sacramento, taking on the eventual #1, New Mexico. Both sides will have new managers entering the new year, and that’s why this is such an intriguing game.
Sacramento just paid a release clause to nab Neill Collins as their head man, which is about as good as it gets in the USL. Collins preferred a back three during his Tampa Bay days, and the bones of the Republic roster are tailor-made for his system. How will Collins innovate to make a move away from Mark Briggs worthwhile? That’s the question.
Things are fuzzier in New Mexico. Eric Quill is off to Dallas, and no replacement is in yet. The last time this team travelled to California’s capital, they got routed on national television. There’s ample moving and shaking left to go in Albuquerque this winter, but the opener is a chance to prove that 2024 more than a fluke.
2. Greenville Triumph - Westchester SC (March 8)
Greenville is a perennially interesting contender in League One, and we’ve already covered their addition of Ropapa Mensah up top. The Triumph aren’t going to miss a beat in 2025 and may well be a favorite to advance in the Jagermeister Cup. Drubbing Westchester would prove their post-MacKinnon mettle from the jump.
Still, an opener against Westchester SC may be a trap game. Westchester made a statement in signing MLS veteran and Jamaican international Kemar Lawrence already and seem ready to compete from the jump. What better way to come onto the scene than a match against a class organization like Greenville?
3. Charleston Battery - Rhode Island FC (March 15)
The path to a title game in the East runs through Rhode Island until further notice, and an early duel between RIFC and the Charleston Battery - the two most recent conference champs - is a tasty March fixture. These teams met in November in the Eastern Conference final, of course, and feel like rivals in the making.
The storylines are ripe on both sides. How Rhode Island mixes Maxi Rodriguez into their team will be a defining decision in 2025. Charleston’s post-Nick Markanich equilibrium is equally fascinating. The full re-tool is still pending, and Charleston will surely have picked up weapons that’ll make this game that much more delicious come March 15th.
4. Oakland Roots - San Antonio FC (March 22)
Oakland’s home opener against San Antonio is an exciting game between two bubble rivals from 2024, but it’s also the debut of the Roots at the Oakland Coliseum that makes this match special. The Roots just announced plans for their own soccer-specific facility, but taking over at for the A’s at the Coliseum is still a major marker of progress for the club.
On the pitch, San Antonio will be hitting their stride under new manager Carlos Llamosa. SAFC returns a core that was deeply underwhelming in 2024, but the talent on their roster recommends this team as a bounce-back candidate. By week three, we’ll have a decent sense of their new identity, and a matchup against a basically unchanged Oakland team (with apologies to veteran additions like Kai Greene and Tyler Gibson) ought to be a solid barometer for both clubs.
5. FC Naples - Portland Hearts of Pine (March 29)
Naples was discussed already this week (relative to Lalo Delgado) and last (after signing Jayden Onen), but how will the talent coalesce on the pitch? We’ll find out in the final weekend of March, when the Floridians play host to the first-ever match for Portland Hearts of Pine.
Portland has been slow-going in the market so far, having only announced attacker Michael Poon-Angeron thus far. Poon-Angeron has already accrued 17 caps for Trinidad & Tobago at age 23, but it’s unclear how the team will look around him. A test against a fellow expansion team chock full of League One vets is a fun opening game for a Portland side that’ll be on the road for their first four matches.
A word of wisdom: the first months of the year can be misleading. Performances matter more than results, but even bad form can turn into a stellar second half of the season in the right circumstance. Rhode Island, for instance, sat 11th in the East as summer approached in 2024, and look where they ended up!
March matches mean something, but they aren’t everything.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
I’ll be posting something on Substack in the post-Christmas/pre-New Years period, but it probably won’t be a deep dive. I ranked all the new movies I saw in 2024, so expect something similarly self-indulgent.
Birmingham was cooking (maybe literally?) with their Hot Ones-themed schedule drop, and their new “Bites and Banter” segment rules. Kudos to all the media teams that do the most to highlight players’ personalities.
If you’re a fan of Monterey or just want to keep up with one of the under-discussed teams in the league, check out The Union Report. I’ll link to a recent article about Jacob Muir signing out of the A-League, but the site is great for Monterey-specific coverage grounded in an understanding of USL-wide storylines. That’s refreshing.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!