Offseason Notebook: Old and New in New Mexico

How Eric Quill is building on late-season momentum heading into 2024

The table, much like the cake, is a lie. On the face of it, New Mexico United barely snuck into the playoffs in 2023 as the eight seed in the Western Conference, and that distinction came thanks to a three-game win streak to save face at the end of the campaign.

Dig deeper, however, and you’ll find a team that made meaningful strides and distinctly improved their performances late in the season.

During the last nine matches of the year, New Mexico turned a running one-expected-goal-per-match deficit into a +0.71 xG edge per game. Yes, this team got hot at the right time, but they did so because of smart tactical decisions and backed it up by the numbers. There’s a reason Eric Quill and company edged Sacramento on xG in their first-round playoff game and nearly pulled off an upset.

Some of the main players behind the success and, indeed, many key moments in club history, are gone. Amando Moreno is a big loss, a tricky winger with an endless-range scoring threat who’ll be plying his trade for rival El Paso in 2024. Santi Moar, another historically prolific attacker, also said goodbye. Justin Portillo set the tone with smart passing and good defensive instinct in the midfield, and he’s off to Western foes FC Tulsa.

Still, Coach Quill’s core is largely back. New Mexico have retained a tick under 66% of their minutes played year-over-year, and their roster has a spry and youthful mien across the board.

Take Nicky Hernandez and Zico Bailey in the midfield. Both were acquired midseason in 2023, and both became undroppable at high-energy No. 8 positions. Their returns are a clear statement of intent.

You see their vitality and Quill’s tactical modus operandi on display in the clip. Pressure comes instantly by way of the right winger in the 4-3-3, but Sergio Rivas - stationed as a No. 8 - hedges up to cover behind him. When a cutback towards the middle relieves the pressure, Bailey joins the hunting pack out of the defensive midfield and pounces like a lion onto the ball carrier.

From there, it’s all about tempo. Moreno, who had tracked back to shut out a possible switch as a release valve against the New Mexico pressure, bombs up the left and charges in for a shot.

The flexibility of the central midfielders and activity of the wingers remains crucial in attack. Here, you see Moreno drop into the center circle in build-out, only to be replaced upfield by a high-flying Rivas, a natural No. 8 who’s back for 2024. This team is deep at the spots that are most crucial to Quill’s philosophy

It’s a sequence marked by control and intention but also verticality, and the interchange creates gaps between the opposing lines. The focus of the movement in the left channel also addles the central defenders, creating the gaping hole into which striker Greg Hurst (also back) bursts. There’s skill and tactical nous here in equal measure.

Hard-charging effort from the entire front line and at least two center mids became definitional at the end of last year. Even sans Moreno, there’s a core in place to maintain that standard, and New Mexico has andded interesting pieces to fill out the team.

Avionne Flanagan, picked up at left back from USL League One’s Charlotte Independence, has a whole lot of verve in his back pocket. A journeyman who will appear for a sixth lower-league club in four years when he debuts in Albuquerque, Flanagan had one goal and three assists in 2023. He’s very quick-footed, both in terms of his pace and decision-making on the dribble.

Flanagan has been a good-not-great piece in the Championship, but he fills a role for Quill and co. As seen in the tape from the League One title game, Flanagan drove a second-half change into a narrow 4-3-3, making strong overlaps against a thinned-out opponent. A winger ahead of him would tuck in, and then the newest addition to New Mexico United would bomb upfield.

Marco Micaletto is another good get in the front line, especially in the context of the narrow forward role you see complementary to Flanagan in the play above. The 27-year-old Micaletto was an all-League One player with Tormenta, combining gritty pressing instincts with awesome skill in front of net before moving to MLS NEXT Pro.

Micaletto put up 11 goals and three assists in his final year with Tormenta, starting 28 matches along the way. With Columbus Crew 2 in 2023, he picked up eight goals and no assists despite generating 3.3 expected assists in 22 appearances. Indeed, American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added metric would’ve rated Micaletto as an 86th percentile performer last season, bolstered by elite shooting and creation numbers.

Mukwelle Akale, another ex-Tormenta man, brings much the same effect. He was a 96th percentile performer in League One in 2023, racking up 11 goals and four assists in Statesboro. Most often used on the right, he’ll bring the sort of brightness this team requires out of the forward line.

You can see the pair in action in the chances clipper above. Micaletto is more of an opportunist, the sort of player always lurking to pounce at the right moment in the box. In his last USL campaign, he completed more passes per match than Akale (32 versus 31) but was slightly less progressive (29% forward pass rate versus 32% for Akale). That betrays Akale’s tendency to drive play in the final third and show a bit more verve as a passer.

I haven’t yet mentioned Dayonn Harris, a very solid piece signed from the Tampa Bay Rowdies who can play on either side as an attacker or full. He has burning pace that probably exceeds his skill at this point, but he’ll be a great change of tempo off the bench at a bare minimum. Expect a glow-up if he gets the starting opportunities that were too rare in Florida.

Elsewhere, Cristian Nava may as well be a new signing, one who can fill a number of positions in the front five. He put up two goals and two assists as an 18-year-old in 2022 and got better as the year went on, but he missed almost all of 2023 with an injury. With Nava, now 20, and others in the mix, you wouldn’t be shocked to see veterans like Chris Wehan play more minor roles in the season to come.

The core of the defense has remained the same, and no one ought to be mad about that. Kalen Ryden is maybe the most underrated center back in the USL, a player that ranked in the 98th percentile for overall performance by my metrics. He put up 151 clearances in 2023 and is the paramount example of a stay-at-home rock in the back line.

Flanked by more adventurous options like Will Seymore and Austin Yearwood, Ryden gives New Mexico a good base to build on top of. Yearwood, in particular, looks to be key. He’s a sort of tweener capable at center or left back, and he’s got the mix of size and skill to excel in either deployment.

Last but certainly not least, Alex Tambakis will continue to hold down the net. No USL goalkeeper has more minutes played in the last three years, and Tambakis has been solid if unspectacular in that run; there’s something to be said for the consistency alone. You’ll never see the Greek ‘keeper make a glaring mistake, and that’s a big deal.

Add it all up, and this New Mexico team has the makings of a dark horse. A lot will depend on Greg Hurst, a 20% conversion rate player but low-volume shooter in 2023. He needs to find the end of more chances or at least play dummy as the Micaletto types burst in behind. Still, in a Western Conference with more than a few teams spinning their tires this offseason, New Mexico United is laying the groundwork to make a legitimate leap.

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In other news this week…

• I’m back at it for Backheeled with 10 bold predictions for the 2024 USL season. From League One’s breakout side to transfer trends and some playoff bets in the Championship, I’m all across the map. Be sure to subscribe; it’s worth it!

• Huge kudos to Darnell King as he retires from active play and joins the coaching staff for Phoenix Rising. I’ve loved watching King since his all-NASL days with the Fort Lauderdale Strikers, and he’s really covered a lot of ground in the lower leagues. Top player and top human.

• In the latest edition of The Rondo, the official USL newsletter, the man/myth/legend Nicholas Murray described the season as being “Carlos Harvey days away,” and that’s living rent-free in my brain.

• Oakland flew in from the top rope in the “Best Name in the USL” hunt by signing Gagi Margvelashvili (like…c’mon, that’s unreal), and the amazing crew at RootsBlog has the breakdown of his fit.

• Y’all liked the movie talk last week, so I’ll indulge again. My big aim for the year is to see every single Best Picture winner in Oscar history. I started at 43 out of 95, and I’m making solid progress. 1933’s Cavalcade is a damn mess; it’s a Forrest Gump-esque traipse through a generation of events, sans comedy. On the flip side, the Russian roulette in The Deer Hunter from 1974 is the tensest shit ever.