Offseason Notebook: Loudoun and Alta, coast to coast
Exploring Loudoun United's stand-pat offseason, assessing AV Alta's midfield mix, and more from the USL
Welcome back to the Offseason Notebook! Before we dig in, make sure to check out Backheeled! I’ve got offseason grades up from last Monday, and I’ll have my awards picks for the year and a walkthrough of the roster-building process this week.
Without further ado, let’s get to it.
On Loudoun’s quiet offseason
I might be nervous about Loudoun.
This team is going to be fine; it’s easy to forget that they had the eighth-best xG margin in the entire USL last season. Still, there’s something unnerving about their reliance on internal improvement in the midst of an Eastern Conference arms race. This offseason, Loudoun has lost attackers like Kalil ElMedkhar, Christiano Francois, and Tommy Williamson, a set of players that provided creativity, speed, and strikerly instinct. At the back, stalwart defender Keegan Hughes is gone after a very strong loan spell.
For a Loudoun team that allowed just 39 goals (the fifth-best mark in the USL) but only scored 44 goals (ninth in the East), the initial moves checked out. United set themselves up to re-build an underperforming offense and without a huge lift required to retrench the back line.
The upgrades in question? They’ve been minimal. Cole Turner, who played just 15 minutes in 2024, is seemingly the heir apparent to Hughes after a late-breaking re-signing. The only true addition is central midfielder Moses Nyeman – himself a former Loudoun player that notched 18 appearances between 2019 and 2022.
We’ll get to Nyeman, but it’s worth considering what system this team will run. So far this preseason, it’s been a 4-4-2 for Ryan Martin. Still, Martin ended last year in a 3-4-3 that this familiar core could easily reprise. Clearly, the Loudoun manager is doing the basic math give the need to score more; taking a center back off the pitch gives you a much-needed extra attacker.
This team did go with a back four at times in 2024, starting in that shape and last running it in a fall win over visiting Phoenix. That shape was appealing because of its attacking flexibility, as seen in the following sequence.
The best of the back four is on show above. There’s confident short passing, sensible give-and-take movement across the front lines, and an emphasis on tempo to break down the opposing defense. You see the result – a goal, albeit one flagged as being offside – in the clip here:
Lots of important trends feature in that play. Loudoun used Zach Ryan in a vaguely “false No. 9” deployment no matter the shape, leveraging his ability to receive and create on the turn to the utmost. In the back four look – which was more of a 4-2-4 in practice – Ryan’s drops and the ensuing midfield replacement runs could thus give Martin and co. a five-man front.
Of course, operating in that manner was easier with Florian Valot playing in the pivot rather than as a winger, and that’s where the complications come in for 2025.
My modeling rated Valot as the sixth-best player in the entire USL last season. He’s terrific, but he’s most impactful when he’s allowed to tuck into the half spaces and when his 32-year-old legs aren’t as responsible for box-to-box defending. The 3-4-2 made that positioning natural, at least while Loudoun possessed. You worry about the workload if he’s the true right winger, and his narrow movement may crowd out the dropping runs that make Ryan so unique.
For my taste, Tommy McCabe is one of the best No. 6ish midfielders in the USL and is undroppable in the center pair. At the same time, he’s never going to make that sort of direct run you’re seeing from Valot. What of the other spot? Nyeman wouldn’t have come to Loudoun if he didn’t have an assurance of starting-caliber minutes, and he’s got Drew Skundrich backing him up just in case. The onus is thus on Moses Nyeman, still just 21 years old, to come good.
Can Nyeman, who’s fundamentally more defensive-minded than a Valot type in the central midfield, come through? The midfielder is a very good player that’s going to flourish back under Martin’s management, but he also ranked in the 29th percentile for chances created and the 16th for dribbles among MLS Next Pro center mids last season. Those numbers were far stronger in a more attack-first deployment with Real Monarchs in 2023, but they at least plant a seed of doubt.
Of course, a lot of this might be academic. Loudoun is going to add (read that as “belatedly confirm”) new signings in the coming days that might render this analysis kaput. Still, the overarching approach and the way it’s been communicated matters! I like Loudoun a lot, and I think their decision-makers are very smart folks, but I’m still wracked by a few fundamental concerns.
All in on Alta?
We’re still at the stage where I have to look up the names of the managers whenever I’m talking about a League One expansion team. That’s evidence of me being dumb, but it’s also a sign that the new clubs are an on-field mystery.
Of course, AV Alta is managed by Brian Kleiban, who boasts of coaching experience in the LAFC, LA Galaxy, and Chivas USA academies over the years. If Alta wanted someone with the deepest possible understanding of the Los Angeles youth soccer scene, they literally couldn’t have done better.
Kleiban’s track record of developmental roles means that his philosophy is something of an unknown. How AV Alta actually looks come opening day is a major question, but they’ve put together a squad that ought to be eminently progressive driving from back to front. For my money, it’ll probably be a 4-2-3-1 starring Jimmie Villalobos and Miguel Ibarra (the club’s first-ever signing) as a double pivot.
A reigning all-USL selectee, Villalobos is best known as a solidifying member of various League One midfields. Villalobos is the sort of player that opens up lanes as a bounce passer and does the dirty work without possession, and he’s brilliant in terms of his positioning. Ibarra, meanwhile, is a star thanks to long career in MLS, Liga MX, the NASL, and multiple USL tiers. His reputation is chiefly focused on his upfield incision, but the belies a gift for Ibarra’s fuller set of passing abilities.
Indeed, what unites the duo is their ability to pick passes from the pocket in front of the back line. Ibarra, for one, made that clear during his latter days in Charlotte. Though Villalobos’ average pass has traveled just 2.3 yards upfield since 2023, he completed 2.9 long balls per game in Madison and showcased a terrific sense for when to take risks.
You see that mindfulness in practice in the example, where Villalobos’ unmatched spatial awareness is at its best. The central midfielder seemingly makes a counterintuitive backward run, but he’s actually (1) opening space for a dribbler, (2) making himself available to receive, and (3) teeing up a progressive pass.
The outcome of that savvy sequence is seen below in full, with Villalobos allowing Madison to enter the final third:
Alta has set themselves up to feast in similar circumstances. You get the ball to Villalobos, Ibarra, or the underrated Harrison Robledo, and you’re good to go. Not only does Alta have the requisite passers to get the job done, but they’re stacked at the wide spots.
Walmer Martinez is above the level, if we’re being honest. Comfortable up and down the left, he completed 1.5 crosses per game on 70th percentile accuracy in Monterey last year. Javier Mariona, meanwhile, ably covered as Central Valley’s wing back throughout 2024. Mariona completed just 0.3 crosses on bottom-of-the-barrel 14% accuracy last year, but he took 2.7 shots on nearly five touches in the box per match. Eduardo Blancas had eight goals and 93rd percentile xA last year in MLS Next Pro and could be a star.
Mariona, of course, brings a connection with forward Alexis Cerritos, who was used in a “second striker, left half space, just kinda roam” role in a recent friendly; that’s a good deployment for such a tricky player. There are question marks as to the rest of the forward group – blame my unfamiliarity more than the talent at hand! – but things are shaping up very nicely elsewhere. If this midfield is clicking, AV Alta is going to be nigh impossible to stop.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Some roster moves reinvent your system; others double down on what makes your team great. Spokane’s addition of midfielder Nil Vinyals (five assists, 94th percentile xA last year) is the platonic ideal of the latter. I’ll have more on that move and whatever the Velocity have up their sleeve in my upcoming League One season preview/power ranking/depth chart list/whatever.
Ollie Bassett might be the most important player in the East this season if things go well for Tampa Bay, so check out his excellent interview with the gang over at RBLR Rowdies.
I might vehemently disagree with the take the more I think about it, but my friend and yours Kaylor Hodges laid out the case for the USL switching to a European calendar.
The USL Show is in the thick of preview season! Come check out our discussion of the Championship’s Western Conference on Tuesday night.
In entertainment corner, I caught Daisy Ridley’s new action movie Cleaner, which apparently only got a limited release. Which makes sense, because it’s bad! Imagine if John McClane was impotently hanging outside of Nakatomi Tower until there were 20 minutes left in Die Hard, and if Hans Gruber kept stopping down to lecture you about anti-humanist philosophy(?!).
On the flip side, Stanley Kramer’s 1961 trial movie Judgement at Nuremberg rules. It’s three hours long, but you’re never fatigued because of the stunningly good camerawork and blocking that’s highlighting an all-star cast. Not to lib out too much, but a movie about abiding the rise of a fascist regime feels relevant.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover Photo Credit: Loudoun United & Forward Madison / Twitter
Kaylor is right! Moving to the FIFFA Calender is the best option.