Offseason Notebook: Cameron Dunbar, Switchbacks on the margins, and North Carolina's pipeline

Discussing a Milan Iloski replacement, under-the-radar Colorado Springs, and the Nick Holliday-led youth movement in Cary

Can Milan Iloski be replaced? I’ve imagined Orange County re-creating his production in the aggregate (thanks, Brad Pitt) via Zubak, Sorto, and others to mixed returns. Still, what if there was an obvious answer at Championship Soccer Stadium already? Let’s compare some stat lines:

Player A, of course, is Iloski. Player B is Cameron Dunbar during his 2022 season with LA Galaxy II in their last USL campaign. Note those American Soccer Analysis numbers in particular; the 21-year-old Dunbar, who just inked a multi-year deal this offseason, is demonstrably better than Iloski at picking the ball up in dangerous positions and moving with it, and he’s within shouting distance as a scorer.

My Goals Above Replacement model rated Dunbar, who played about 3,000 minutes, as the single best attacking midfielder in the league in 2022. He scored 12 goals and pitched in three assists on 69th percentile expected assist generation, and he did so on 27.4 touches per match; Iloski averaged 27.1 last year.

The tape also bears out the similarities. Though Dunbar often played as deep as at wing back with Los Angeles, he displayed two key tics that defined his predecessor’s style: immense gravity as an inverted left-sider and a keen eye for leaking out in transition.

In the play above, Dunbar is the left winger in an attacking 4-3-3, and he drops into the channel to receive a touch while the left back overlaps on the sideline. When Dunbar controls, he turns forward but at a considerate pace, letting the play develop and drawing the defense his way. A quick juke to the right ensues, catching the eyeline of three opposing defenders in the process.

When Dunbar dumps the ball off, he continues moving towards the box, lurking in front of the central defenders. Every step is meant to distract the defense.

By the time Owen Lambe receives on the right side, Dunbar has successfully weaved and roved to open a seam, and Lambe - now a teammate again in Orange County - whips in an assist.

Here, Dunbar has found a gap behind the advanced right back in the opposing four-man defensive line. If there’s one thing that truly differentiates the ex-Galaxy man from Iloski, it’s his foot speed, and that’s on display here. Dunbar tears forth on the break, deftly holds up his dribble to involve a teammate, and creates a golden chance.

These are the exact plays and reads that made Iloski so special. You’re probably losing some foul-drawing prowess and set piece mastery in Dunbar, and it remains to be seen if 2022 was a flash in the pan, but I’d feel confident starting next season with Morten Karlsen’s usual 4-3-3 and a barely-altered lineup that stars Cameron Dunbar on the left.

Colorado Springs always seems to be on the brink. They came fifth in the West in 2021, third in 2022, and fifth again last year. Two playoff wins came in that stretch, both during Brendan Burke’s final campaign two seasons ago. Even with Hadji Barry rip-roaring through defenses, the Switchbacks never quite felt like a nailed-on title threat.

Last year, the club ranked 11th by expected goal difference, had the 13th-best defense by expected goals against, and faced the fourth-most shots in the league. By any definition, they were an average or worse defensive unit that overperformed because of excellence higher up the pitch.

Heading into 2024, Colorado Spring has returned 12 players, a core that essentially guarantees a minimum of playoff bubble status. There have been a few key additions to boot, headlined by Ronaldo Damus up top. In terms of other solid contributors, Wahab Ackwei will likely start in the back line, where his athleticism and no-nonsense mien will shine. Damus is a slight upgrade on Romario Williams at the No. 9 spot on finishing terms alone.

That leaves two more new signings, both from Loudoun United, that I want to highlight: Koa Santos and Aidan Rocha.

This is a fairly pedestrian pair of sequences, but it’s one that’s indicative of the very subtle ways the Switchbacks need to improve for the season ahead. Indeed, these are the scenarios that Rocha, a 23-year-old midfielder, and Santos, a 24-year-old right back, are built to correct.

In the first play, an opposing forward dives between Colorado Springs’ central midfielders, carving out a touch to advance play into the offensive half. The Switchbacks weren’t an overly aggressive pressing team last year, and you see how that allows for opposing zone entrance here. You can quibble with the spacing of the pivot, but multiple factors are at play.

As the guests turn and advance, you’ll note that Skundrich is very, very narrow at right back, meaning that there’s a gap nearer to the sideline. A cross ensues and gets snuffed out, but the danger is real and the gaps are clear.

Similar principles apply in the second play. Colorado Springs’ right back has a slight deficit in terms of acceleration and is beaten inside. Meanwhile, Jay Chapman and Speedy Williams are deep, allowing for an opening at the edge of the box. I actually like Chapman’s read to cover the gap on the right, but it’s another instance where you might desire improvement; you don’t want to force a No. 6 to make that rotation.

Enter Koa Santos, who can provide the missing tools at right back. Santos pitched in the fourth-most interceptions and second-most tackles of any Loudoun player last year, but he really shines as a passer. The native Hawaiian completed the eighth-most crosses in the USL in 2023, and he was the most accurate crosser of any top-25 volume distributor with a 30% completion rate.

Though a lot of the clip above is centered on Santos’ initiation, note his defensive positioning against a break-obsessed San Antonio FC. He’s very good about picking the moments to stay level with the center backs. Santos has a fleet first step and is well-built, all of which helps the defender’s cause. This positioning is possible because of the passing skills, too; Santos is so good at picking out ranged passes that he can stay home and spark from deep spots.

Aidan Rocha, the other Loudoun import, won 111 duels last season, and his 39 clearances ranked third on that roster despite his playing mostly as a central midfielder. Rocha completed 90% of his pass attempts in his own half of the pitch, and he made more starts and ate more minutes than any other Virginian in 2023. He’s the definition of stability where it counts.

Rocha is content to do the dirty work: you see him drop between the center backs to facilitate, help reclaim the ball in the counterpress, and put in a crucial tackle in front of his box in the clip above. The 23-year-old knows how to set the tempo and plug holes in a manner that’s perfect for this squad, and he also knows how to feed Santos thanks to their ample time spent together last year.

Here, you see Santos and Rocha come together to similar chances to the ones at the top of this Switchbacks breakdown.

It’s the small movements that stand out. Rocha knows when to step back and provide cover, allowing midfield teammates to step up and bolster the press or track a runner. Santos, meanwhile, has a sense of when to hew wide. If the right back overextends, Rocha has the sixth sense to fill at his spot.

The reactions are fast, committed, and well-designed to maintain structure. These exact plays are what’ll help Colorado Springs on the margins.

I like Rocha’s fit on top of it all because of what he means for Speedy Williams. The Jamaican midfielder, now 31 years old, has aged like fine wine, proving to be a high-volume passer capable of influencing the match from front to back; he’s actually improved slightly as a creator over the years without sacrificing his involvement in build-out.

Still, Father Time comes for us all, and the ongoing offensive involvement has come at the expense of Williams’ prime defensive influence. In 2018, he put in 3.7 tackle attempts and interceptions per game; that was down to 2.0 in 2023. #80 still ranked in the 74th percentile for defensive actions at his spot, but Colorado Springs ought to hedge their bets in support of the late-career creative reinvention.

Putting Rocha as the No. 6 next to Williams is the solution. The ex-Loudoun man is a tremendous tempo-setter and defender at the base of the midfield, and his sense of responsibility will empower Colorado Springs on the ball. Imagine Williams stepping up next to Jairo Henriquez or Tyreek Magee in a 4-1-4-1, threading balls into Maalique Foster or Ronaldo Damus; imagine that central danger opening Koa Santos on the flank. Neither Rocha nor Santos may be a superstar, but they’re going to be massive in 2024.

Nick Holliday is off to Charlotte FC, and it’s an outstanding achievement for the young goalkeeper and the club that produced him: North Carolina FC. Holliday first joined NCFC’s youth academy at age 12, making his professional debut three years later. Now, the netminder is off to MLS.

I talk about the talent pipeline a lot, and Holliday’s move is exactly the sort of progression we ought to be seeing. In that vein, North Carolina is seemingly on the precipice of a bigger breakthrough in their youth system. Who might be next up?

Holliday was part of a four-man set of rising U-18 stars that either joined or re-upped with NCFC this winter; all are viable candidates to become stars.

Julian Placias, shown in the highlights above, is one such prospect that signed with North Carolina out of the LA Galaxy system. Last year, the young forward appeared in seven MLS NEXT Pro matches, totaling just 160 minutes. Still, Placias picked up a goal and created two chances in that super-sub run.

The 17-year-old has the broad shoulders of a future target man, and he’s a willing runner in the channels already. That ability to stretch defenses, take quick and inventive touches, and contribute to a pass-and-move setup is promising for Placias’ future as a line-leading striker.

Adrian Pelayo is the most promising of all the prospects for my taste, inclusive of Holliday. Capped for the Mexico U-17s and solid as No. 6 or center back, Pelayo registered 400 minutes with Timbers 2 last year. During that time, he completed upwards of 83% of his passes, conceding just two turnovers on more than 200 attempts. The Mexican youth international won more than 60% of his duel attempts while pitching in six additional interceptions.

What stands out with Pelayo is his poise. There’s plenty of room for the defender to grow into his frame, but he’s already a wise reader of the game who won’t overcommit at the first sign of trouble. More importantly, he’s a sparkplug in build. Portland used Pelayo as a quarterback, sitting him next to the goalkeeper on restarts to shepherd the ball past the first line of pressure. Not to get overexcited, but it’s very Aaron Molloy coded.

Kyrome Lumsden completes the tetrarchy of 2024 signees, having signed a two-year deal with an option for 2026. It’s legitimately impossible to find info about the attacker outside of the blurriest Facebook video in recorded history of a youth goal he scored, so yeah.

Beyond the newer faces, North Carolina has a track record turning further-along prospects into contributors. It’s an undersung part of the pipeline. Not everyone breaks out at age 18; think about Milan Iloski (tying the notebook together, eh?) moving to Europe in his early-mid 20s.

To that end, Jaden Servania made 44 appearances for Birmingham in the Championship before decamping to Cary at age 22, and he’ll be back in the second tier again next year. Luis Arriaga joined from Real Monarchs at age 20, making 81 appearances at WakeMed. Other prospects like Cole Frame debuted before they could vote and made dozens of appearances.

Put it all together, and you’ve got a club in North Carolina FC with (1) a robust academy setup, (2) an acquisitive philosophy towards rising stars in MLS pipeline, (3) a track record of “finishing age” development for players on the verge. It’s what you want to see all the way through, and it means that Nick Holliday is the first in a series of successes to come.

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That’s all, folks. You don’t need a reminder, but you simply must check out Backheeled. Between all of our amazing MLS, NWSL, USMNT, and USL coverage, you’ve got a stew going. In other news…

• Michee Ngalina is such a big deal for Hartford, I can’t even tell you. He’s a true maestro on the flank, a one-man offense at his best. With Ngalina out wide, one of Marcus Epps or Enoch Mushagalusa can move into the middle as a No. 10, and the ex-Switchback’s gravity will give them ample room to thrive by spacing out the defense. I still have question about the creation from the back here, but Hartford looks real.

• Nick Moon is a shitposter? I knew I liked him for a reason.

• In your League One content corner, check out the Bluegrass Soccer Cast interview with Lexington and former San Antonio coach Darren Powell. Additionally, Walkin 90 had a great offseason transfer recap discussion.

• Vamos Morados’ LouCity preview is worth a click, just like everything else Benton writes or records. Ditto on Ryan Keefer’s Loudoun preseason piece for District Press.

• I was on Soccer Saturday, Indy’s weekly soccer-centric radio show hosted by the great Greg Rakestraw. I’ve said this before, but I fell in love with this sport watching Eleven matches from 2014 on, and going from that dumb teen to Greg’s regular guest blows my mind every time.

• I’ve been on a binge of Naomi Watts movies, inspired by her turn on Feud on FX. Let me tell you something real: Peter Jackson’s 2005 remake of King Kong is an absolute bop.

See you next week! Or tomorrow, pending the availability of preseason streams and my lack of a social life.