Offseason Notebook: anchors aweigh in Rhode Island
Breaking down a new expansion side, plus Louisville's net and other USL notes
Predicting how an expansion team might play is the fastest way to look dumb, but Rhode Island FC may be an exception to that rule. Their signings have followed distinct patterns, and their squad indicates certain stylistic tenets that’ll play off throughout 2024.
At the time of writing, Rhode Island has added 17 players, a mix of USL stars, MLS NEXT Pro standouts, and foreign imports. There’s ample fluidity across the group, and that gives coach Khano Smith plenty of options as he formulates a gameplan.
When Smith was on the Birmingham Legion staff, the club often used a four-at-the-back shape, one with two active central midfielders and a two-striker press up top. As the roster in Pawtucket looks now, I see a similar strategy taking shape. There’s plenty of room for variation, as we’ll see, but let’s start with a potential 4-4-2.
Ocean State Offense
At the front, Albert Dikwa and JJ Williams stand out as hugely important acquisitions for the expansion campaign. Dikwa won the MVP award and the Golden Boot last year, but Williams was no slouch either. The duo combined for 32 goals on 120 shots in 2023, a conversion rate above 32%.
Though 6’2”, Dikwa only won 39 headers at a below average rate on aerial duels, and he didn’t earn a single assist. Williams, by contrast, cuts a more complete profile. He won 112 aerial duels and registered nine assists thanks to a preternatural connection with his teammates in the Tampa Bay forward line. Thus, the new duo in Rhode Island gives and takes in all the right ways as a combination.
Finishing is the least of RIFC’s worries. To get to those opportunities, you must build out from the back, and that’s where Koke Vegas is going to set the tone.
The Spanish goalkeeper, the first signing in club history, completed more passes per match than any other USL netminder last season. He’s a tremendous short passer, confident with the ball at his feet and ready to step up and become a proxy member of the back line in build. Making Koke Vegas the team’s first signing is a clear tell that Rhode Island intends to be possessive.
Still, the former San Diego Loyal man is precise at any distance, and a tasteful sprinkling of long balls can link him to the strike corps. Watch those clips above; Koke Vegas has the exact right-footed arrows in his quiver to feed into JJ Williams’ hold-up and knock-on tendencies.
More often than not, however, this Rhode Island side will build in waves, involving the midfield and full backs to patiently breaking defenses down. Grant Stoneman will help the cause. A Loyal teammate of Koke Vegas, Stoneman completed 63 passes per game last season and knows how to evacuate space to open up his goalkeeper’s unique advances upfield.
Options abound elsewhere in defense. I expect Gabriel Alves to start at left back; he’s fiercely technical at that spot with a central midfielder’s level of control. Jojea Kwizera could do the job too; I’ve heard excellent things about him from the RIFC camp, and he’ll get ample time all over the left. More on him later.
Elsewhere, Frank Nodarse and Stephen Turnbull should fill out the right. Nodarse has the skill of a full back in a center back’s body. Playing for Rio Grande Valley kept him a well-guarded secret. Meanwhile, Turnbull put up very impressive prorated numbers in limited run at NYCFC and is the only obvious fit as an out-and-out right back.
That settles the back and front, so who fills out the middle?
Connor McGlynn is comfortable at center back, but I suspect he plays as a No. 6 in this 4-4-2. Underrated as a ball carrier, McGlynn is the sort of player who can connect lines on the dribble or as a passer. He’s the piece here most likely to hit a diagonal and provide directness in build.
At the other spot next to McGlynn, Marc Ybarra has the sixth sense for making the runs that’ll let this team flow. Ybarra is the king of doing the dirty work needed to advance possession from box to box; he rated in the 60th percentile or better last year for expected goals and assists, forward pass rate, and fouls drawn. His movement is ceaseless, and he’s unbelievably good at turning his hips to become available as a receiver at seemingly every moment.
Joe Brito is next up, and he’s my pick for a hotly contested left mid spot. Recruited from Union Omaha, he's comfortable as a withdrawn winger or an attacking-minded No. 8. The Omaha system used in an ostensible wide role but actually had Brito tuck inside, thereby overloading the center of the pitch and opening wide lanes for overlaps. RIFC matching that deployment would suit both Kwizera and Alves.
Prince Saydee ought to start on the right, as he often did in Hartford. The 27-year-old, seen terrorizing the channels with his pace in the back half of the clip above, is a wide forward by nature. He loves a take-on, and he put up 10 goals on 50 shots in 2023. Remember those clips of JJ Williams dropping low to hold-up possession? Saydee is built to make runs to re-occupy the space the striker vacates.
In a lineup with Brito sitting deeper and narrower at left, Saydee makes sense at right. Though extremely quick, the Liberian attacker can sometimes fail to track back; counter-balancing him with a conservative counterpart on the other side would establish balance, lending other midfielders to cover the space behind Saydee if needed.
Saydee is also the truest winger on the roster, and he’s an especially good pair with Stephen Turnbull. Again, small sample size, but Turnbull put up shots at a 99th percentile rate at Yankee Stadium. His underlapping will be key in tandem with the wider Saydee.
Mark Doyle is the odd man out in this shape, but he’s a piece that connects my visions of RIFC’s offensive and defensive strategies. Doyle can play as a No. 9 but is best as a supporting left winger. He has tremendous instinct on set pieces and a killer tendency for crashing far-post runs after the actual strikers have distracted the defense.
Pressing in Pawtucket
Watch those examples in the video, and you’ll see how Doyle sets a defensive tone, too. Twice, Doyle jumps a passing lane to win the ball ends and gift himself a goal. If Khano Smith learned anything from Birmingham, and if the acquisition of a Doyle is any indication, this Rhode Island team will value front-line pressure.
Though often seen in a 4-2-4 press the 2021-2022 Legion actually weren’t the most ferocious pressing team around in terms of PPDA or takeaways. The advanced wingers and probing strikers closed to ball handlers, but their main goal was to funnel passes into a central trap or encourage a wasteful heave over the top.
Rhode Island has assembled a group of players who can operate with similar aggression. Among signings active in the 2023 Championship, a predilection for “active interventions” (tackles and interceptions) rather than “passive interventions” (clearances and blocks) was a trend.
RIFC’s pieces aren’t afraid to put in a tackle from front to back. The aggression in midfield and defense appears above, but consider Doyle and even JJ Williams in tandem. The ex-Rowdie’s 30 takeaways rated in the top five of starting strikers last year!
The burden will fall on the midfield pivot behind those forwards to do the job. McGlynn has plenty of experience in a hybrid role where he sits deep and chooses his spots to intervene. Ybarra, who led the East’s best defense with 33 tackles last year, knows how to play centerfield behind the somewhat sluggish Dikwa in the press. This pair boasts a real ability to deny advancement.
Expect the full backs to help the cause, stemming a 4-2-4 press’ innate issue with coverage in the channels when the front four is played past. Naturally, you leave space in the midfield when you push your wingers up, but a combination of good work rates and spatial awareness will let the wide defenders cover the gaps.
Both Alves and Turnbull are well-built, in excess of 6’0”, and both ranked in the 70th percentile or better for defensive actions in their respective leagues last season; they can step inside and rotate with the McGlynn types or fill beneath Brito and Saydee.
Say the opposition breaks in past that coverage, whether by long ball or controlled progression? Anticipate a high back line that isn’t afraid to do battle.
The personnel in Pawtucket makes such a system obvious. McGlynn, for example, is the king of rotating from the midfield into the back line as a safety net. Nodarse is a different flavor of defender with equal utility. Last year, the ex-Toro picked up 8.4 defensive actions per 90, the fourth most amongst USL players with at least 2,000 minutes of game time.
Clay Holstad, as yet unmentioned but similar in style to McGlynn, is a lovely fit if you want an aggressor at the No. 6 spot or at center back. Classified as a defender in MLS NEXT Pro per American Soccer Analysis, Holstad’s best contributions came while interrupting opposing moves. The 24-year-old placed second on a very good Columbus Crew 2 team with 28 interceptions.
Say things get really hairy and the whole defense is beaten on a fast break. No worries: Koke Vegas had the second-most clearances of any USL goalie in 2023. The Spaniard has been mostly average by the shot-stopping metrics over the last two seasons, and he’s a safe pair of gloves in conventional defensive scenarios too.
Back Three Basics
Given the versatility in the squad and the track record of players like Stoneman and Koke Vegas within a 3-5-2, Smith could well prefer a shape that uses three central defenders. How might that work?
This shape would entail a more possessive iteration on the Pittsburgh playbook, or a rather swashbuckling version of the Sacramento 3-4-3. The Riverhounds like long balls and use an aggressive midfield to win knock-downs; they’re never afraid to drop into a defensive 5-4-1 with an almost diamond-shaped midfield. The Republic defend in a flatter 5-4-1, but they use their wingers and wing backs with extreme attacking aggression.
The principles of the 4-4-2 wouldn’t change in this shape. I’d expect Koke Vegas to play out short, though the center backs - with more backup in tow - could carry forward with greater freedom. The press would still be fearsome and the back line still high; you’d expect a 3-4-3 look against opposing build that maintained those marauding full backs from the back four.
Players like Doyle, Noah Fuson, and Kwizera feel like better fits for this shape. I’ve hit Doyle already, and the Irishman’s far-post instinct and ability in the press would be eminently useful in this look. What of the other two?
Kwizera is spotlighted first in the clip and his range on the flank is evident. The former Montreal man is fleet of foot and equally rapid in his decision-making, and he’s a really adventurous runner. He could feasibly fill minutes in the Doyle spot as the left winger, though his incisive and wide-ranging passing skills make him a better fit as a full back given how I expect RIFC to play.
Fuson is built for a front three; you can get a sense of his game in the numbers here. Able as a No. 9 or narrow winger, he’s great at linking play in the final third and has a nice first touch that constantly puts him in useful spots. Fuson’s agility and finesse pair with a 6’3” frame to create a potent weapon in the final third; you can see his bonafides in the clip above as well.
At back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoneman play centrally with McGlynn and Nodarse as the wider center backs in this shape. The Loyal vet is less mobile and a duller dribbler than the alternatives. There’s a chance McGlynn could start as a defensive midfielder alongside Ybarra; this choice would accommodate Holstad or Alves starting in central defense. You get the picture: Khano Smith is spoilt for choice.
Put it all together, and you’ve got something bright. My prediction is that Rhode Island FC starts in a 4-4-2, one that pushes up to create the pressing traps and holds a high back line. If RIFC wins the ball and can counter, they’ll feed Prince Saydee and leverage the hold-up instincts of JJ Williams. If not, possessive build driving from Koke Vegas into midfield overloads a la Marc Ybarra will do the trick, paid off by underlapping full backs and the terror that is Albert Dikwa. Of course, a 3-4-3 is still a distinctly dangerous possibility.
Whether I’m right or wrong in the specifics, this is a team to fear. My data model - tactics agnostic, by nature - has RIFC comfortably above the 50 point mark and in hot contention for home field advantage. With Khano Smith and a star-studded roster in tow, I wouldn’t bet against Rhode Island immediately competing.
Louisville, huh? Their lineup, powered by the additions of Taylor Davila and Sam Gleadle in recent weeks, looks preposterously good. Still, the depth of their squad might be even scarier than the top-line quality.
Wes Charpie and Kyle Adams would start in about 18 other USL lineups, but they’ll be fighting for minutes in this side. Six different midfielders have legit claims to starter-level time. The backup XI here could be a playoff bubble team. If 2023 was a lateral step that let the East catch up to LouCity, 2024 looks like a year to get back to elite form.
I am curious about the goalkeeping situation. Oliver Semmle, who I spotlighted as a potential European target at Backheeled, seemed to be nailed-on in net, and for good reason. As a rookie, the German was tied for the USL lead in clean sheets. However, reports indicate that Louisville is set to get Damian Las on loan from Austin FC in MLS. Las, from my understanding, is an advanced prospect and the heir apparent to the starting job for Austin. He isn’t coming to Kentucky to sit idly by.
Maybe Semmle is heading out? Maybe LouCity just wants to sharpen metal against metal? Something’s brewing, and I’m curious to see what it could be.
In other news this week:
As a Hoosier, few words elicit as much excitement as Greg Rakestraw mentioning “your Central Indiana Honda dealers.” Thus, Indy Eleven abandoning Honda as the front-of-kit sponsor for the first time in club history is a major shock to my system. Ford just doesn’t have the same ring to it!
Nicholas Murray had a great sit-down with Diego Luna, he of El Paso Locomotive fame and impending USMNT stardom. Read that! (Also, I miss Nicholas on Twitter, but anyone who can escape that whirlpool of crap deserves plaudits.)
Fellow USL Show compatriot Kaylor Hodges is back at ‘em with his Birmingham-specific Hammering Down podcast, discussing potential targets for the Legion. Lots to like if you’re a Legion fan or if you’re curious about unsung free agents left on the table.
Check out the good folks at Raising Anchor for more RIFC content! Yours truly has already guested on the show.
That’s all, folks. Tune into Backheeled on Monday, where I’m back with my first in-depth Power Rankings of 2024!