Midseason makeovers: Early returns from new-look Louisville and Tampa Bay
The impact that a new coach and a new player are leaving in the East
If you want to find a season where one of Louisville City or the Tampa Bay Rowdies weren’t the winner of the USL Championship’s Eastern Conference, you’d have to go back to 2016 when New York Red Bulls II beat Swope Park Rangers in the title game. Since then, Louisville and Tampa Bay have been the most consistently dominant clubs in American soccer.
2023 has been different. The Rowdies started slowly, going winless through a month of league play before rounding into form. Even so, the exit of manager Neill Collins for Barnsley threw a wrench into that success.
Meanwhile, Louisville has a negative goal difference and the second-worst offense in the East. Injuries have been a perpetual plague, and there’s been a lack of consistency in terms of performances and team selection.
This weekend, however, things seemed to round into form in a major way for both teams. Louisville, who traded for defender Kyle Adams last week, turned in a controlled two-goal win against rival Indy Eleven. In their first match under full-time manager Nicky Law, Tampa Bay beat FC Tulsa by three.
Both clubs made a few important tactical changes in their wins, and they’re worth examining in fuller detail. Might these shifts put both Eastern stalwarts back into full contention?
Admittedly, Tampa Bay is in better shape and has been more consistent than Louisville this year. They’re third in the East with enough games in hand to claim the top spot, and their goal difference is tops in the conference and third overall in the entire USL.
Still, the style has been different than usual for the Rowdies. By expected goals against, the Rowdies are good but not elite as in prior seasons. Moreover, this Tampa Bay team is the weakest in the league for successful defensive actions in the press.
Some of that statistical frailty comes from the success of the Rowdies’ defensive shape in general. This is a side that keeps a tight formation that forces teams to go long or play wasteful, risky balls; they don’t need to put in tackles that would rupture the broader defensive structure.
Still, Nicky Law’s first match at the helm bridged the gap between successful results and a harder-nosed approach.
Since Ryan Spaulding’s loan ended and Jake LaCava returned after a sterling 2022 campaign, the Rowdies have vacillated between aggressive and conservative approaches. Spaulding, a wing back from the New England Revolution, had the work rate and skill set to allow for a hybrid shape that the more attack-minded LaCava can’t fit.
With that balance in mind, Law turned to a 4-4-2 or 3-4-3 shape in which LaCava was supported by both Jake Areman and Aaron Guillen on the left side. On the right, Conner Antley was the focal point, but the flexibility across the span of the pitch set Tampa Bay up splendidly.
The opponent on Saturday, Tulsa, played in a 3-4-3, and Law’s tactics resulted in high-pressing scenarios like the one below that totally nullified that look. Keep in mind that Tulsa had won five consecutive games before the weekend blowout.
What worked so well? The two forwards, Cal Jennings and JJ Williams, could effectively press the center backs while fronting the Tulsa pivot and denying them with their press shadows. A line back, Yann Ekra and Jordan Doherty marked the double pivot from behind, never letting them take a clean touch if the forwards were played past.
The flanks gave Law’s system flexibility. More often than not, Jake LaCava - the left winger - pressed into a front three alongside the proper strikers to match the Tulsa center backs to a man. Jake Areman would fill in behind LaCava, creating that 3-4-3 as an aggressive iteration on the 4-4-2. Occasionally, you saw a similar variation down the other side with Dayonn Harris pushing up like a proper forward and Conner Antley supporting behind.
Either way, the changes greatly improved Tampa Bay’s performance. Compare the outcomes from the Birmingham and Tulsa games two weeks apart, and you can see the impact Law’s gameplan left. A more inflexible 3-4-3 let the Legion tear through the front line and overload the midfield, working into the final third from there on the way to a comeback win.
In keeping a clean shut in Law’s debut, the more fluid formation let the Rowdies shift to deny the center of the park and cordon off the half spaces up the pitch. If Tampa Bay can keep this level of organization up, they’ll be a playoff favorite.
Louisville’s issues have centered around their attack. Danny Cruz has led the club to top-three defensive results in the East, but attacking outcomes have ranged from “deeply disappointing” to “merely fine” with little upside.
This iteration of LouCity typically finishes above water in terms of possession, and they’re a top-three crossing side in the USL. Still, expected goals have been wanting; a lack of tempo has doomed Louisville and allowed defenses to settle in.
With the Adams trade, Cruz was able to adopt a back three shape. The Kiwi central defender represents Louisville’s third senior player at that spot in the wake of Josh Wynder’s move to Benfica and Jordan Scarlett’s season-ending injury, and the gaffer wasted no time in throwing him into the mix.
Using three center backs is liberating in a few ways. One of the center backs can move on the dribble, knowing that two partners remain back as counterweights. You see Sean Totsch take advantage in that manner above.
Furthermore, having that three-defender anchor allows your wing backs to play with added aggression. Full back positioning has been once of the biggest shifts for LouCity in 2023, best represented by Amadou Dia’s repeated deployment as a deep passer in build.
Check out the heat maps and the video reel again, and you’ll see that Dia and Oscar Jimenez had free reign to bomb up the flanks in the new shape. The left wing back and right wing back even connected in advance of Louisville’s opener.
This year, Louisville has put in 18.4 cross attempts per 90 minutes, and they’ve done so while holding 51% of possession on average. Sporting a back three against Indy, they garnered 28 cross attempts on 32% possession. The three-center back shape held firm without the ball, but the extra width it afforded made LouCity more dangerous and wide-ranging going the other way.
Between Nicky Law’s defensive strategy and Danny Cruz’s back-to-front reorganization, the two flagship clubs of the East seemed poise to soar up the table. Pittsburgh looks incredibly stout, and upstarts like Charleston loom large, but I wouldn’t bet against either side against the field for USL Cup qualification. It isn’t easy to win year after year, but the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Louisville City are making the right changes to do just that.