League One Playoff Primer, 2024

How to think about each matchup ahead of USL League One's postseason

It’s playoff time in USL League One! Eight of the division’s 12 teams enter, and only one will remain in just a few short weeks.

The reigning champs from North Carolina aren’t involved having jumped up to the USL Championship, but Northern Colorado is going for the double after taking home the inaugural Jagermeister Cup. Meanwhile, Greenville and Omaha are both looking to claim the all-time lead in USL League One titles. Storylines abound, ranging from youth-driven Richmond to veteran Charlotte and everything inbetween.

To preview the tournament ahead, I’m digging into each first round match-up. I’ll take a look at each club, pick a key player or two, and predict of how each game will play out. The sections will be subdivided by a header graphic featuring xG, xG against, goals saved above expected, and my model’s odds.

Let’s dig in.

The top dog across the League One regular season, Union Omaha will play at home as long as they stay alive. No playoff team wins the ball back in the final third more often (3.8 times per game) than Omaha, and no team is as varied an attacking threat. Dom Casciato’s 3-5-2 can beat you with clever runs out of the wing back spots, a late burst out of the pivot from Pedro Dolabella, or a defense-bending dribble from Lagos Kunga. Omaha has created more than 125 shots from dead balls as well, the highest count in the league.

Omaha boasts one of the division’s elite defenses, but they need their back three to stay composed against elite competition. Mechack Jerome is proven goods in the lower leagues, but he’s winning just 1.2 headers and 3.0 duels per game; Luca Mastrantonio (69% tackle win rate) needs to be aware of the gap over Jerome’s back shoulder. Again, though, that’s a nitpick more than a flaw.

Though the Richmond Kickers were the last team to qualify for the playoffs, they’ve seemingly found their stride at the right moment. Darren Sawatzky’s 4-1-4-1 (or 4-4-2, matchup pending) is controlling games in the midfield and produced a six-match unbeaten run heading into the final week. Moving Dakota Barnathan to the No. 6 spot and leaning into young stars like Griffin Garnett in defense and James Sneddon in net has paid off in spades.

It’d be easy to point to Nil Vinyals or Emiliano Terzaghi as the X-factor here, but the full back duo of Simon Fitch and Maxi Schenfeld will be key in the postseason. The duo has combined to generate upwards of 70 takeaways in league play, and they’re only dribbled past about once per game in total. Surety at the full back spots allows the rest of the Richmond team to flow more effectively, and the Fitch-Schenfeld pair provides it.

These teams drew on October 5th, a match where Richmond wisely opted to use a very defensive double pivot to slow Omaha down. The Kickers set the tempo back then, and the match ended with just 13 total shot attempts and barely 600 passes between the sides. It’s doubtful that they can repeat the trick sans Barnathan (who’s suspended), but that ought to be Sawatzky’s intention. I’d bet on Omaha’s wealth of attacking options to eventually spread Richmond out and put them to the sword.

Can Northern Colorado do the double? This club, led by Eamon Zayed, romped to a Jagermeister Cup title earlier in 2034 and legitimately laps their competition by the numbers. The Hailstorm’s +30 expected goal difference is double Omaha’s +15 mark in second place. Northern Colorado puts up those results thanks to a system that’s direct (they lead League One with 34 long passes per game) but never wasteful. Outlets like Bruno Rendon and Real Gill give this club verticality in spades.

If you’re a regular reader and/or listener to my League One work, you’ll know I swear by Jackson Dietrich. The ex-winger is a crucial cog in the Hailstorm central midfield, constantly moving to link play, create from the channel, or clog the center of the park against opposing attacks. He sets the table (see 90% passing accuracy on 61 touches per game) and forces defenses to step up, thereby opening the long game. He also provides a balance with David Garcia’s right-sided initiation in a really useful manner. NoCo will rely on those less-praised pieces if they go the distance.

Spokane Velocity has exceeded all reasonable expectations for an expansion team, but they enter the postseason riding five losses in seven with only two goals scored during that run. When Spokane’s 3-4-3 was clicking, they possessed the ball steadily through the central midfield and built into the feet of Luis Gil in the right channel or Josh Dolling on the drop. Those patterns eventually went stale.

Leigh Veidman has returned to a refreshed 4-2-3-1, one that’s maybe unproven but has the pieces for a just-on-time upturn. The shape has done a lot to maximize Derek Waldeck (1.8 chances created, 2.1 completed crosses per game) on the left, and his deployment will be fascinating to watch. Waldeck could play left back behind a winger, or he could be the winger himself with USL Championship veteran Ish Jome in defense. No matter the setup, Spokane still needs payoff, and they’ll feel entirely more dangerous if the underrated Anuar Pelaez can do No. 9 things up to his potential.

This won’t be a landslide, but it’s difficult to imagine Northern Colorado crashing out. The Hailstorm limited Spokane to just two shot attempts when these teams met at the start of October; two prior Jagermeister Cup meetings went 3-1 in NoCo’s favor. Their vertical firepower feels overwhelming in the face of an inconsistent Velocity back line.

After a loss in the Jagermeister Cup final a few months ago, Forward Madison is out to prove their tournament mettle anew. This team’s 3-4-3 is incredibly stout; they’ve allowed just 18 league goals and are benefiting from Bernd Schippman’s great season in net. It’s easy to miss how patient this club is with the ball as well. Madison completes about 410 passes per game, tops in League One and critical to their patient, let-things-develop attacking style.

Matt Glaeser is spoilt for choice in the attacking line, but Devin Boyce feels like an essential part of the equation no matter what route Madison goes. Boyce has five league goals and 25 chances created from a hybrid “right wing, No. 10, just kinda rove in the half space” deployment. His ability to vary positions gives Glaeser license to mix it up on the left. You can match Boyce with Derek Gebhard to stretch play, Garrett McLaughlin to provide a second striker complement, or Juan Galindrez to crash the net.

The Charlotte Independence will go as far as their defensive structure and Juan Obregon will take them. This club holds 45% of possession on average, the lowest rate of any playoff side. Their press is similarly passive; they win the ball back in the final third less than any playoff team. Still, Austin Pack (4.3 goals prevented across competitions) is the best backstop in the division - if he’s healthy; Matt Levy seems like a good replacement even so - and you trust the Omar Ciss-Bachir Ndiaye double pivot in the 4-2-3-1 when push comes to shove.

Luis Alvarez’s importance can’t be understated for the Independence. The midfielder has a case to be League One’s Young Player of the Year after putting up eight goals and four assists across all competitions, but he’s more than just a pop-up scorer. Alvarez successfully puts in 1.7 tackles per game, and his 5.7 recoveries a match are a 93rd percentile mark. #14 knows when to drop deeper to contribute, whether by doing the defensive job or dragging the defense out with more build-oriented creation.

This is may be the toughest matchup to call, at least for my taste. Madison has never really lived up to the attacking names on their team sheet, and a matchup against stodgy Charlotte won’t cure their ills. There’s a similar dynamic going the other way: the Independence can run cold, and Forward Madison doesn’t make silly mistakes. My leaning is toward Charlotte, but I can see penalty kicks deciding this one.

You could make a genuine argument that the Greenville Triumph haven’t beaten a good, in-form team since back-to-back wins over Knoxville and Charlotte in June. That’s suboptimal! They have a negative goal difference and expected goal difference alike since July, and their 4-1-4-1 defense has the spirit back lacks on execution.

You can go far in the postseason on the back of one hot player, and Lyam MacKinnon is the USL’s best candidate to be that guy. Cutting in from the left side like the League One mirror of Nick Markanich, MacKinnon has six goals and two assists since the start of September. If MacKinnon’s gravity can open up secondary scoring from, say, Leo Castro up top or Sebastian Velasquez in the midfield, then Greenville can make noise.

With just one league loss since the start of July, Ilija Ilic-led One Knox has allowed just eight goals in their last 16 matches. They say that defense wins championships, and it may be trophy time in Tennessee if that’s the case. Knoxville is extremely good about dropping into a five-man deep block, keeping games close, and coming up with a goal to earn a result. Their center back group, anchored by Jordan Skelton in the middle with Dani Fernandez and Jalen Crisler on the flanks, is a model of “give and take” chemistry.

Can the Knoxville attack do the job? Kempes Tekiela (nine league goals on 26% conversion) will get his, but the supporting cast needs to step up. If Stuart Ritchie can push up from wing back and Callum Johnson can contribute out of the pivot, then One Knox will have found the right balance. Those two have 10 assists across all competitions, but they can feel disengaged if this team is too passive.

My money is on Knoxville here. Johan Garibay (fifth-most goals prevented in League One across all competitions; somehow displaced the two-time reigning Golden Glove winner in Sean Lewis) won’t make life easy for the Triumph forwards, and Greenville struggles against good opponents already; they averaged 2.2 xG per game against non-playoff teams and only 1.3 against postseason qualifiers this year. Throw in swooping runs of Frank Ross and Stavros Zarokostas ahead of Johnson for Knoxville, and you’ve got a clear path for (1) One Knox to create against the Triumph’s single pivot and (2) Greenville to produce a goose egg.