How have Orange County burst back into the playoff race?

Analyzing Morten Karlsen's season-saving tactical changes

Don’t look now, but Orange County has won four of their last five matches, pulling even for eighth place in the Western standings. The club has been on a heater since Richard Chaplow was let go as manager, earning 19 points in 12 matches. My playoff model has boosted Orange County from a 12% chance of postseason qualification to a 51% chance under Morten Karlsen.

What changed to bring the 2021 champs back to life?

Recently, a turn to a 4-3-3 has made Orange County formidable. There are a few key patterns that define the new look. Milan Iloski starts on the left wing, but he plays in a high and narrow position to maximize his threat; he has five goals and two assists in his last ten matches as a result. Iloski vacates the left sideline, and that the space has been filled by Ryan Doghman, a box-to-box left back who soars up the flank with aplomb.

On the right, Orange County is more conventional. A central midfield player, either Seth Casiple or Ashish Chattha, helps to create passing triangles with Lambe at right back and a right winger. This latter spot offers optionality for Karlsen. Need a speedster on the break? Korede Osundina is a burner. Want someone with the creative sensibility of a staid No. 10? Brian Iloski can do the job

Defensively, Colin Shutler’s return in net in recent weeks has helped; Cody Cropper, once a hot USMNT prospect, put up negative-five goals saved above expectation in just nine starts before his impromptu retirement. Shutler is plus-two in 11 starts. In the back line, Dillon Powers’ emergence as a solid central back has been influential, and ditto for Owen Lambe’s starting run at right back after an early-season absence.

The final factor mapped in the formation graphic spotlights the interchange between Kevin Partida as the No. 6 midfielder and Kyle Scott as the more advanced No. 8. Out of possession, Partida plays deeper and regularly puts in tackles to stifle the opposition; he rates in the 80th percentile for defensive actions amongst all centermen.

With the ball, things get interesting. Scott drops in as the lowest member of the midfield, often going down to the level of the center backs. Meanwhile, Partida shifts upfield and makes runs to find space off of his English teammate.

Why has the gambit been so effective? Scott is a two-footed passer with tremendous range and vision. By dropping him deep, Orange County forces defenses to step up hard and thereby leave space open elsewhere. In the first clip above, Partida fills that space and launches a switch into Osundina. In the second, #26 does the job himself to break the press via Lambe, opening another good move down the right flank.

Partida’s movement in relation to Scott is vital above, but his defensive contributions are equally crucial. For one, he’s an effective counterpresser. If Orange County goes long from the back, #19 is a ready attack dog to pursue second balls. Of course, he does the job in more typical off-ball scenarios as well; Partida is second on the team in terms of both interceptions and tackle attempts despite only participating in 60% of available minutes.

I’ve been an unabashed fan of Partida’s game since is stint in the manic man-marking system of Ian Russell with Reno 1868, and he’s still excellent in 2023. There’s a reason he’s started every match this season outside of a suspension stint.

Watch that example above to see why Partida is so crucial. #19 steps up to the opponent that receives the pass between the defensive lines to slow the initial break. He continues to recover back, shifting over to the ball carrier in the channel and denying a cutback passing angle. That dribbler eventually wrong-foots Partida, but his end-to-end effort has allowed the defense to get back into shape and gives Casiple a window to put in a tackle.

Casiple has been a real solider in filling out the rest of the midfield. He typically plays higher up as more of a No. 10-No. 8 hybrid who can link Scott’s deep creation with the Iloskis or hold-up striker Marc McNulty, who just appeared on the essential Orange & Black Soccercast. If Casiple isn’t in, Brian Iloski or the aforementioned Chattha can take charge.

Chattha’s typical contributions in build are illustrated. He’s a more mobile, involved option in the vein of Scott. A rookie out of UC Irvine just minutes from Championship Soccer Stadium, #15 allows Orange County to drop two midfielders deep into the half spaces and stress opposing presses to the max. Still, he brings a certain verve in the final third as well, ably interchanging with wingers and providing Casiple-esque incision as a passer.

The level of interchange and creativity within this revamped midfield forces defenses to step up, and Orange County duly answers hard closing with balls over the top against isolated back lines; all three goals in a 3-1 win at Loudoun came off of long passes.

Ultimately, the chance of getting into the postseason is still a coin flip, and many of Orange County’s bubble rivals have games in hand. That said, form matters, and Morten Karlsen has this club playing better than nearly any other side in the USL. Karlsen has pressed the right buttons to maximize this roster and get Orange County SC back in the race, and my money would be on the success continuing.