Breaking down the revamped Riverhounds' dominant 2023
How has Bob Lilley refreshed and improved an elite defense?
Things weren’t supposed to be this easy in Pittsburgh. My data model put the Riverhounds ninth in the projected Eastern table. The official USL Championship preview, to which I contributed, had them a modest seventh. Fast forward to the midway point of the season, and Bob Lilley’s team is leading the Eastern Conference, having advanced as far as any other USL club in the US Open Cup in the process.
The ‘Hounds haven’t lost a single game at home and generally look like a well-oiled machine, but the process to get there was by no means conventional. Entering the 2023 season, more than half of the team’s roster was made up of newly signed players. Pittsburgh retained just 47% of their minutes played from the season prior, a strong 2022 that featured a playoff win.
Lilley leaned into many college graduates and players with little professional experience, but he kept experience where it counted. 35-year-old midfielder Kenardo Forbes returned in the central midfield, and he’s played in 91% of available minutes this season. Jahmali Waite, a Jamaican international, and Arturo Ordonez, a second-year player but one who played in 31 games last year, stayed as anchors in net and in the back line.
Around those solid options, Lilley has been remarkably trusting in terms of his player deployment. Pittsburgh has used 24 players already this season in the context of their preferred 5-1-3-1 shape. Still, that number doesn’t quite capture the uniqueness of the 2023 Riverhounds.
How does their minutes distribution compare to, say, Sacramento, another team that employs a somewhat similar shape? By looking at the share of minutes in which each player has appeared at their position, it’s possible to analyze roster deployment. One goalkeeper is used at a time, so a goalie would optimally play 100% of minutes; the attacking midfielder in a 5-1-3-1 would want 33% of minutes.
Going position by position, it’s evident that Pittsburgh doesn’t really have nailed-on starters across most of the lineup. Excepting Waite at GK, Forbes at AM, and Ordonez at CB - his 39% time share is off because of players moving between roles, I should note - the Riverhounds are marked by ample rotation. Sacramento uses a nailed-on nine-man core for all intents and purposes, while Pittsburgh charitably has five guaranteed pieces in a given lineup.
The rotation clearly hasn’t hurt, and it has actually been invaluable amidst Open Cup-fueled fixture congestion. This, in large part, is what makes Bob Lilley special. No manager in the USL or American soccer at large is as gifted at taking new, inexperienced faces and integrating them into a complicated tactical system.
In USL circles, “Lilley-ball” is often referred to in somewhat mocking tones. The coach’s teams sit deep, use a different formation every week, play physically, and end it all with an early playoff loss.
That rap is grossly oversimplified. In 2023, Pittsburgh is showing that the Lilley system is timelessly effective, and that prowess shines in defense more than anywhere else. The Riverhounds have conceded the least expected goals per match in the USL, and it isn’t particularly close.
Pittsburgh has championed a stifling pressing system in doing so, one that denies entrance into their third of the pitch. Barely 33% of the club’s defensive actions this season have been clearances, second-lowest in the USL. Clearances are only needed deep within a team’s own half when a defender needs to relieve pressure as quickly and decisively as possible. Pittsburgh’s dominant xG against and low clearance share illustrate their effectiveness at keeping pressure away.
It’s worth digging into that 5-1-3-1 to understand the Lilley defense on a deeper level. Though the manager is known for his chameleon-like ability to tailor a shape to a specific opponent, Lilley has leaned into a consistent shape in 2023.
In the high press, that shape stays rather strict. The forward, whether a physical No. 9 like Edward Kizza or someone more mobile like Tola Showunmi, aggressively closes to the ball carrier on the other side. Meanwhile, the defense forms a tight, diamond-like shape that puts an emphasis on denying passing lanes down the middle. Those tenets are shown here.
Against the opposing 4-2-3-1, the lone Pittsburgh striker closes on to a defender and forces him toward the sideline. Meanwhile, the line of three in the Riverhounds’ midfield stays flat and tight, clamping down on one member of the opposing pivot.
Marc Ybarra, the usual choice as Lilley’s No. 6, roves one line further back. If the opponent chooses to play into the deep-moving midfielder of their own here, one of Pittsburgh’s central midfielders will step up to him, and Ybarra will fill in to keep the general shape.
The aggressiveness central to Lilley’s identity is clear when the midfield line is broken. If the No. 6 can, he’ll step up to the opposing receiver to deny further progress.
This is where the wing backs in the team become crucial. Pittsburgh often inverts a right-footed player on the left side and vice versa, a choice that promotes narrowness. The Riverhounds wing backs are expected to cut out passes that skirt wide of the press or break to the side of the lone No. 6.
Those dynamics are seen above. The right-sided defender closes very high against a break down his sideline, while the opposite left wing back pinches up field as well. The opponent cannot beat the midfield and immediately switch the point of attack because of these responses.
One other variant sees one of the three center backs step up into the midfield to make sure that passes between the lines won’t go uncontested. The aforementioned Ordonez is especially important in these contexts.
Still, he’s just as capable of anchoring Pittsburgh in their own block. There, the shape sinks into a flatter 5-4-1, a look that compresses very tight and totally denies room to breathe for any opposing offense.
Again, the pictures do the talking. The Riverhounds keep an immaculate shape down low, and they can rely on Waite or DC United loanee Luis Zamudio to bail them out in net; cumulatively, the team’s goalkeepers have saved 0.6 goals above expectation in 2023, more than good enough behind a defense this elite.
The system is clear and principled, but it’s even more impressive because of the squad rotation. That such a reworked roster displays this level of chemistry and organization is a feat. Bob Lilley, in his talent identification, his player development, and his installation of tactical tenets, is a true master. The 2023 Riverhounds have a little bit of magic, but it can only shine on the shoulders of classic Lilley pragmatism.