Breaking down the Mushagalusa-Adams blockbuster

How will San Diego and Louisville improve with their new stars?

Expectations are perennially lofty in Louisville and San Diego, and the clubs came together today to make a deal to meet those high standards. Winger Enoch Mushagalusa is headed to Southern California, while center back Kyle Adams will call Lynn Family Stadium home. How will this deal change the game for each club, and is there a winner in the trade?

Mushagalusa moved from Sporting Kansas City II to Louisville City after 2021. He has 21 goals and nine assists in his USL career, including 10 conversions in his debut season in Kentucky. However, Mushagalusa had fallen out of favor to an extent this year. His conversion rate dipped from 15% to 9%, and he was much less able to find space in a team that was possessive but somewhat uncreative.

Adams is a New Zealand-born central defender with ample USL Championship experience with Real Monarchs, Rio Grande Valley FC, and the Loyal. He has a lone senior cap for his national team. In recent weeks, Adams - normally a nailed-on starter - seemed to have fallen out of favor in terms of Nate Miller’s team selections.

Ironically, my data modelling sees both teams as losers in this swap. By shifting minutes and altering their roster builds, Louisville and San Diego alike lose half a point in my final projections. Both clubs’ playoff odds drop by 2%.

Still, the eye test paints a different story, and there’s significant upside for both participants in the swap. Let’s see what each player can add and glance at some potential lineup changes.

How Louisville can improve with Kyle Adams

Last season, Danny Cruz was able to adapt to certain matchups by moving LouCity into a back three as a complement to his basic 4-1-4-1 shape. Given the Josh Wynder sale, Jordan Scarlett’s season-ending injury, and various knocks to players like Wes Charpie and Ramzi Qawasmy this season, that variation was impossible.

In a sheer depth sense, Adams restores the ability to use a free-flowing 3-4-3 formation. By goals allowed, Louisville actually has a top-six defense in the league this season, but they’ve lacked offensive dynamism; they’re one of three teams that hasn’t reached the 20-goal mark.

A back-three shape would give Cruz and co. a better foothold in possession, thereby allowing Amadou Dia and Manny Perez, two real bright spots in this team’s attack, greater license to bomb up the sidelines. Additionally, forcing opponents to press in greater numbers against three center backs could open up Dylan Mares and other creators in the center of the park.

Of course, Louisville may just stick with their typical four-in-defense scheme, in which case Adams can still provide a value presence as a rotation player.

Adams’ game is one marked by aggression and fearlessness. As seen in the clip, he’s entirely unafraid to advance up the pitch to mark an opponent or put in the tackle. The 6’2“ defender is also good in the air, above water for his aerial win rate and in the 82nd percentile for total aerial wins. He can play at left, right, or center.

There are moments where his pace in recovery is lacking, and that’s a concern in a team that still uses a relatively high defensive line. LouCity ranks fifth in offsides against this year, illustrating their usage of a higher offside trap. Adams has also been criticized in San Diego circles for his overeager tendencies. Still, he’s a very good passer and a reliable option for a team that sorely needs bodies at the back.

The passing has been underplayed here, but it’s not like Louisville lacked that quality between Charpie and Totsch. Still, Adams is a real plus, and, if he does play in a back three, can effectively find angles into the center of the park.

Losing Mushagalusa is a big deal, but it won’t crater an already-struggling attack. This team is deep in the midfield, and while the winger's speed can change games, he hasn’t left a massive impact in 2023. Brian Ownby and Ray Serrano can fill in admirably, and Cruz may prefer formations with two strikers out of the Wilson Harris-Cameron Lancaster-Maarten Pouwels triad either way.

Mushagalusa’s dynamism and variation in the Loyal attack

Fresh off a five-to-nothing win two weeks ago, San Diego is at an inflection point in their season. They’re fifth in the West and within shouting distance of the conference lead and the playoff drop line. Nick Moon, a star option at winger and wing back, changed the calculus for Nate Miller’s side immensely when he went down for the year, and the Loyal have acted in due course to replace him.

I don’t expect any sort of shape change for San Diego. In adding Carlos Guzman, a right-sided Liga MX center back, they already have a defensive replacement for Adams that will facilitate the use of a back three.

There are questions to be asked as to the Loyal’s quality at the back, a consistent issue since their inception as a club, and Mushagalusa doesn’t do a thing to solve those problems. Might losing Adams help? His attack-dog tendencies underly an aggressive defensive approach behind the high press, but San Diego has allowed 1.41 goals per game with the Kiwi on the pitch this year as opposed to 0.42 with him on the bench, admittedly in a three-ish match sample size.

Mushagalusa adds something that San Diego’s forwards don’t have: breakneck speed and game-breaking dribbling. Above, you’ll see Mushagalusa - much more comfortable as a left-sider - filling lanes on the break, engaging with a full back partner, and tearing past a defense with the ball in transition. He’s the sort of piece that forces opponents to spread out, thereby opening central stars like Alejandro Guido or Joe Corona.

Tumi Moshobane provides some of the dribbling of Matiti, as the former LouCity #77’s kit reads. Guido can carry the ball in transition as well. None have the pace of the Loyal’s newest player. If there’s a downside, it’s that Mushagalusa can put his head down and be wasteful in possession, looking to go at foes rather than leverage his ample skill on the ball.

There are minutes distribution questions for sure. The Loyal are spoilt for choice with Evan Conway, Ronaldo Damus, Elliot Collier, and Moshobane all serving as viable forward options. Still, the production from some of those attackers has lagged behind expectations, and Mushagalusa will come in hungry to prove his mettle anew.

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Despite the data model’s skepticism, I like this trade on both sides. San Diego has a chance to re-work their underwhelming back line and adds a unique dynamo up top. Louisville becomes more flexible and opens up room to lean into their midfield youth movement. Both Enoch Mushagalusa and Kyle Adams can be stars in the USL, and they’ll get fresh chances to show that quality now.