Paul Blanchette, Koke Vegas, and the race for home-field advantage

How two distinct goalkeepers define Oakland and San Diego

Take a look at the USL table, and you’ll find the Oakland Roots and San Diego Loyal dead even for the fourth seed in the West. After 24 games, both Californian clubs have accrued 37 points, but they’ve taken different approaches to get there. The Loyal have scored 41 goals, third in the West; the Roots have only allowed 27 goals, also third in the conference.

By my model, Oakland currently has an 84% chance of making the playoffs and is projected to finish with 51 points. San Diego’s odds are a nice 69%, and they’re estimated at 48 points. As it stands, those outcomes would put the Bay Area side in third place, with their more southerly foes in fifth.

What sets the two teams apart, and why have they been successful in 2023? It’s worth taking a look at how two elite goalkeepers - Paul Blanchette in Oakland and Koke Vegas in San Diego - define their tactics and styles.

Blanchette is the best shot-stopper in the USL by the numbers, while no one equals Koke for contributions in possession. The tandem come at the game in distinct manners, but both are crucial to the respective gameplans of Noah Delgado and Nate Miller.

Let’s start in the East Bay. This season, Blanchette leads the league with 9.9 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), meaning that an average goalkeeper would’ve allowed almost 10 goals more than Blanchette versus similar shots. Want a more traditional number? Amongst goalies with more than five games played, the Roots’ #20 is second-best with a 75% save percentage.

You can see why Blanchette is special in the clip above. where he brick-walls a breakaway. The save is made to look routine - it’s a weak and mishit shot - but you have to credit #20’s strong positioning, good footwork, and confidence to stay on his line.

More importantly, Blanchette’s excellence is the cornerstone of Oakland’s tactical philosophy. This is a club that usually presses up in a 3-4-3, employing a high defensive line to compress the field. Moreover, the Roots let the back three to step into the midfield to deny progressive passes.

This aggression is only possible because of the elite, confident goalkeeping that serves as a safety net. The opposition breaks through because of a defensive error? Blanchette is going to do something incredible to make up for it.

Above, you’ll see two examples of Oakland’s center backs stepping high. Here, they cut out counterattacks or move into the opposing half to counterpress. Emrah Klimenta and Danny Barbir star, and they’re the preferred right- and left-sided members of the back three.

In the first clip, both of the central midfielders in the Roots’ 3-4-3 have stepped high, so the opposition drops a forward into the empty space to try and break through. Instead, Klimenta steps to deny such a break.

In the second clip, Barbir marks the opposing forward who had come low to hold up the ball in build. #14 doesn’t intervene, but his presence denies passing lanes and forces a quicker, sloppier pass.

This season, 61% of defensive actions for the Roots have come from their defenders. That share is the highest in the USL, 2.4 standard deviations above average. Oakland relies on their wing backs and center backs to actively defend upfield. The back line is a safety net in front of Blanchette, but it’s also a tool of control in higher areas.

The same center backs who make tackles past the halfway line are also allowed to run into the channels when the Roots are in possession. Again, it’s a matter of upping the danger and pinning the other side deep. The higher the center backs move, the greater your numbers, and the more overwhelmed your opponents will be.

Two more examples above highlight Barbir and Klimenta, respectively. Each play sees the Roots start on one flank, forcing the defense to commit to that side. Then, Oakland switches the point of attack to the open area, using the center back to overload this open space. Shots ensue.

This season, Oakland has 25 shot attempts from their center backs, a number that’s above the league average but not groundbreaking by any stretch. However, most USL defenders get their shots from headers on set pieces, and that’s less true for the Roots.

The offensive impact doesn’t just extend to shots. Barbir ranks 10th for the most pass completions by defenders, and fellow center back Tarek Morad isn’t far behind him. On or off the ball, Oakland relies on their back line to get involved far up the pitch, and they can do so because they have the league’s best shot stopper in Paul Blanchette.

What of San Diego? By no measure is Koke Vegas bad in goal. He’s about average as far as conventional metrics go. In 2023, the Spaniard has a -2.8 GSAx, less than one standard deviation off the USL average. Koke is also 15th out of 34 qualifying goalkeepers with 1.3 goals against per 90.

Koke truly shines in possession. He’s second-best amongst all goalies in pass completion percentage at 85%, and he plays most passes at 46 per match. Blanchette, by comparison, only plays 29 passes per game, and half of those attempts are long punts.

Positionally, Koke is the most unique goalkeeper in the USL. San Diego’s #1 effectively becomes an outfield player when the Loyal are in possession. This isn’t a skillset you see every day; The Athletic recently highlighted the novelty of Pep Guardiola using his goalie that way, as if Koke Vegas wasn’t doing the same thing already.

In practice, Koke’s role puts San Diego into a 4-2-5 or 4-3-4 shape in build-up. Having an extra man at the back lets the Loyal push players higher at every level. The center backs are less needed as passers in deep positions and can advance into the channels; in turn, the wing backs can overlap more aggressively, and one of the central midfielders can push up, too.

Moreover, The Koke Vegas Experience™ leads to a more aggressive press. 58% of San Diego’s defensive actions come from defenders, second in the USL behind Oakland and similarly due to the height of the wing backs and center backs. This is a Loyal team that presses very high and effectively controls territory just like the Roots.

Because of that strong press and Koke’s excellent passing, San Diego rank second in the USL with a 56% possession average. What does that control-centric offense look like in practice?

This clip is a prototypical example. You start with #1 on the ball, and the defense is forced to step up as he possesses. Grant Stoneman, often found next to Vegas as the deepest center back, gets a touch before whipping the ball around the elevated press to an advanced peer. This is a truncated example, but San Diego is extremely patient in these situations, often cycling the ball at the back before springing forth.

When the Loyal finally advance having drawn the defense out, their fluidity becomes apparent. Carlos Guzman, the receiver in question, is the leftmost member of the back three, but he functions like a traditional full back. This is the knock-on effect of Koke.

Ahead of Guzman, the Loyal are interchanging and rotating. Alejandro Guido, one central midfielder, is streaking to the sideline, and Charlie Adams, another centerman, is making a run upfield. The guests deny the move, but you can see the danger in San Diego’s patterns.

Adams is a perfect example of the freedom Koke’s possessive surety provides. #6 is a proper box-to-box midfielder, but he leads all center mids with 49 completed crosses this season, one of just three players at his position with 40+ crosses. Number two? Jack Blake, a former Loyal player; this club’s roster construction is highly particular, and it starts with Koke Vegas.

Elsewhere, Adrien Perez has excelled as a goalscoring wing back in much the same manner, and many of his contributions are powered by Joe Corona making Adams-esque runs from the midfield. The Loyal are wildly fun to watch and insanely free-flowing across the board.

At the end of the day, I’d bet the farm on both Oakland and San Diego making the playoffs, and whichever of the teams claims home-field advantage will do so because of their goalkeeper. Paul Blanchette and Koke Vegas are special for different reasons, but they’re special all the same. It’s easy to sleep on a goalie’s importance, but the Roots and Loyal define themselves by their men in net.