A Tale of Two Cities: why Louisville feels different in 2023

Breaking down a mixed start for the titans of the East

To say that Louisville City is “bad” or “struggling” would be incorrect. This team is fourth in the East, three points back of first place with a game in hand on the entire top three.

Still, watch Louisville in action, and something feels amiss. They have a minus-one goal difference so far in 2023. Their expected goals margin per match is -0.10, meaning that the underlying data supports the case for mediocrity.

The issue largely comes down to goalscoring. Louisville ranks twenty-first in expected goals but seventh in expected goals against. On a real basis, they’ve got the second-best defense in the East, but they’ve only scored 12 goals from 12 games.

Still, when you aren’t racking up goals, defensive errors and inconsistencies become that much more visible and vital. Louisville has suffered from very inconsistent lineups at the back. Amadou Dia and Sean Totsch have been constants, but almost every other spot has seen some level of flux.

Five straight weeks of Dia, Wes Charpie, Totsch, and either Manny Perez or Oscar Jimenez have settled things to an extent, but this team is still noteworthy for their squad rotation. Only four players have played in 75% of Louisville’s minutes as compared to a league average of 6.2 players. Only Miami and Orange County, two non-playoff teams, rate lower.

25 players have sported the purple already versus 23 in all of 2022. Injury problems have been a constant, and that matters to this discussion.

If, as I posit, you can mostly give the back line a pass, why is this team stagnant in the final third? For one, Danny Cruz has leaned into an entirely different identity in the press and counterpress, leading to less forced turnovers and easy looks on the counter.

In the past, Louisville has been an elite user of a high defensive line and sharp offside trap. Pushing the defense up in such a manner compressed the pitch and allowed for an aggressive counterpress amidst a crowded midfield. In 2022, Louisville placed second in the USL for offsides against, with only New York Red Bulls II - a team that was constantly under pressure in their own half, by contrast - worse off.

In 2023, LouCity has the fourth-least offsides against. Their defense sits notably deeper in all game states, often taking the shape of a back three in build with one of the full backs sitting deep. The knock-on effect of ceding more space with a lower line? Louisville has the third-least pressing actions in the league. That number describes tackle attempts and interceptions when weighing for possession, and it shows a distinct lack of aggression.

Again, you must weigh injuries and squad rotation when considering the more passive style. Aggressively pressing requires fresh legs and a strong sense of chemistry, two assets that aren’t supported by regular lineup changes, forced or otherwise.

Still, Louisville holds 51% of possession - tenth out of 24 teams - on average this year, down from 55% last year - second out of 27 teams. They have less of the ball, and, when they are in control, LouCity aren’t operating in dangerous areas as often. Their conversion rate is down from 13% to 9% this year without any real drop in talent in the forward line; the chances are simply worse and harder to come by.

What does the tape say? Despite the stylistic shifts, Louisville is still using their classic 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 shape. The basic tenets are familiar Tyler Gibson, mostly preferred as the No. 6, regularly drops deep between the center backs to shepherd build-out. You’ll often see a full back bombing high in attack, though that tendency to drop one of the wide defenders low is notable. In attack, interchange between the striker and one of the wingers is common. In the press, you’ll occasionally see the dual No. 8s push up as the wingers sit in, creating a pyramidal 4-3-2-1 to deny the center.

This sequence shows off a generic sequence in build from Louisville’s match at Hartford. With the caveat that Brian Ownby went off early, LouCity used a typical lineup in their typical formation. You see Dylan Mares and Gibson swap spots, hoping to draw the Hartford midfield up.

Mares links with Jimenez on the right, inaugurating a sequence that finds Wilson Harris in the channel. #14 is dispossessed, but Mares recovers from deep to nearly win the second ball. It doesn’t come off in the end, and Hartford relieves the danger.

What stands out? For one, the choice for Mares to drop in is a mixed bag. He’s a visionary passer, but you neuter his effect when employing him so deep. Mares often played like a false nine in El Paso! I’d argue that the initial depth is why he’s slow to the second ball, bearing out this team’s more lax counterpress as seen in the numbers.

There’s also a real lack of movement in and around the box. LouCity is essentially moving into a front five with both full backs and one of the No. 8s advancing, but you wouldn’t know it from the lack of runs.

Hartford simply isn’t stressed. This is the sort of situation where Ownby’s absence is most glaring, but a cross is an impossibility throughout the sequence thanks to the lack of central action. The opposition holds firm in their strict back five, and it allows them to deny Harris when he slides into a pocket rife with foes.

Another example here, this one from the second half. The only real change of note comes on the right, where Enoch Mushagalusa had come on to provide that Ownby-esque pace and guile on the flank.

Hartford had moved into a 5-3-2 press as compared to their first-half 5-4-1, but you’re largely seeing an identical sequence as in the first clip. Gibson drops beneath the press and hits Jimenez as a ball carrier. The full backs are generally less aggressive here, but the end product is still a Jimenez-to-Harris ball that’s cut out in the end.

If you hit pause as #19 dribbles up the pitch, you can see the LouCity structure clearly. With the wingers high and wide and two central midfielders advancing, Louisville employs a distinct 4-1-2-3. That basic structure is good, and it creates tons of passing options and little triangular overloads when the full backs overlap to create a 2-1-4-3.

Still, this sequence illustrates the basic problem that so often affects Louisville in 2023: no one breaks the shape, interchanges, or makes a clever run. Every move is straight-line, and Hartford is utterly unchallenged. To break down a defense, you need to force them to move, and no Louisville players are doing that here.

These issues are correctible, and Danny Cruz has addressed them at times. Using Jorge Gonzalez in the central midfield led to swaps between him and Wilson Harris against Indy that represented innovation. Amadou Dia’s under- and overlaps on the left constantly create danger and end the stasis. Harris himself is a deft mover that demands the attention of defenses so long as secondary runs match his motion.

One move I’d like to see? Give Elijah Wynder more minutes. He’s a game-changing offensive option when he’s on the field, but he knows how to defend in the Cruz system. The 20-year-old doesn’t even have 200 minutes of time in 2023, but he’s generated 80th percentile expected goals and 87th percentile expected assists in that limited run. I just praised Gonzalez’s spark as a No. 8, and Wynder can recreate that with a bit more of a work rate; use Gonzalez in the middle more often and commit to Ray Serrano on the wing, while we’re at it!

This personnel shift would naturally come at the expense of Rasmus Thellufsen, one of Louisville’s minutes leaders. The new signing has been the best counterpresser and shuttling centerman in the side this season, but how much utility does he provide when the system is moving in an opposite direction? With no goals or assists and middling expected numbers - Thellufsen’s put up just over two expected goals and assists in roughly 1,000 minutes - there could be potential in a change.

Am I worried about Louisville at the end of the day? Not quite. This club is a perennial threat for a reason, and offensive disunion in a season where Louisville played only once between April 30th and May 23rd isn’t exactly unexpected. The defense is still high-quality, and it hasn’t missed a beat with Josh Wynder regularly missing time ahead of his transfer. Oliver Semmle is a real breakout start in goal.

Come September and October, LouCity will probably be racking up goals and coasting to a home playoff game. Even so, it’s worthwhile to examine how they’ve become a fundamentally different team in 2023.